10/07/2026
At roughly $1.0 trillion this fiscal year, interest costs now exceed what the government spends on defense or Medicaid. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) expects net interest to climb from 3.3% of GDP to 4.6% over the next decade. That projection was built on a 10-year yield averaging 4.1% this year and settling around 4.4% longer term, and we are above that path. By the CBO's own estimate, rates one percentage point above its baseline would push debt to 222% of GDP by 2056 instead of 175%.
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