Guild Investment Management

10/08/2026

https://guildinvestment.substack.com/p/seventy-percent-muscle?r=2uav1&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true

Analyzing the Humanoid Robot Invoice

10/01/2026

https://guildinvestment.substack.com/p/welcome-to-october?r=2uav1&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true

The midterms will fill the void between now and the start of earnings season, but they are not among the three things that at the moment, perhaps, are most influential in strengthening or hurting the attractiveness of stocks.

09/29/2026

People usually talk about food inflation anecdotally.
Looking at a Goldman Sachs research piece about consumer --- two separate charts, but when combined, it turns anecdote into data.
Doing a little eyeball math, and people are spending more dollars, but buying fewer units.

09/24/2026

https://guildinvestment.substack.com/p/you-can-give-up-modelling-war-outcomes?r=2uav1&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true

On one point, the competing analysts of Wall Street agree: this is a banner year for corporate profits, with S&P 500 earnings on track to rise by roughly a third.

09/17/2026

https://guildinvestment.substack.com/p/a-world-growing-in-unison-needs-cheaper?r=2uav1&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true

09/10/2026

https://guildinvestment.substack.com/p/chinas-eternally-postponed-rebalancing?r=2uav1&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true

09/03/2026

https://guildinvestment.substack.com/p/the-worst-month-of-the-worst-year?r=2uav1&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true

Since 1950, September has been the only month of the year in which the S&P 500 has fallen more often than it has risen; this is a midterm year, historically the weakest of the four-year presidential cycle; and the new Chairman of the Federal Reserve just used his first Jackson Hole speech to tell ma...

08/27/2026

https://guildinvestment.substack.com/p/trading-trending-and-treading-water?r=2uav1&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true

As we wrote last week, the Treasury said on August 19 that it would at least double its buyback operations in the ten-to-thirty-year sector, from $2 billion to at least $4 billion apiece.

08/20/2026

https://guildinvestment.substack.com/p/bessent-blinks?r=2uav1&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true

We were planning to write about rates already after watching them climb for months.

08/13/2026

https://guildinvestment.substack.com/p/very-different-heavy-metals-very?r=2uav1&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true

First: Uranium