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Greenberg Financial Group, 4511 North Campbell Avenue Suite 255, Tucson, AZ (2026)

10/01/2026

Monthly Market Update

We know history is simply a guide and not absolute, but September is often a struggle for stocks. It has historically been far and away the worst month of the year and it is the only month that has seen the market close lower more often than higher. We came into the month with the S&P 500 more than 12% higher for the year and with the likelihood of a Fed rate increase during the month it seemed like a logical place to expect some type of pullback. The war with Iran continued to grab headlines during the month, but it was the unrelenting rise in interest rates, to levels not seen in decades, that posed the biggest threat to the market. Stocks do not tend to perform well in a rising interest rate environment, but the selling was muted by the belief the rise in oil and interest rates is war-related and temporary. At month end the S&P 500 was down .4% and is now up 11.8% for the year. However, technology names helped that index while the equal weighted S&P 500 lost 5.2%. As we mentioned, interest rates are the big story and the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury is now 27% above where it was when the year began. Oil jumped above $100 a barrel during the month but ended the month at $90.50. Gold was down over 6% in September.

The month began on a Tuesday with the Iran war in the headlines, pushing oil and interest rates higher. Mid-week oil and interest rates stabilized and on Friday we learned a much stronger than expected 162,000 new jobs were created in August. The market tends to rally ahead of a 3-day weekend and ended the week with the S&P 500 up .4%. Coming off the long Labor Day weekend the market was focused on volatile oil prices that sent the market higher one day only to move lower the next. The holiday shortened week ended with the S&P 500 down .8%. We began the first full trading week of the month with news Iran had attacked a Saudi Arabian oil pipeline which sent the price of oil higher, interest rates to a 20-year high and stocks lower. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve Open market committee did raise short-term rates by 25 basis points, which was their first increase in 3-years. At week’s end oil retreated, which helped the S&P 500 close with a loss of just 10 basis points. The last full week of the month saw oil prices and interest rates continue to rise, but investors were focused on a resurgence of AI related names helping the market recoup losses from earlier in the month. On the final trading day, we learned the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge was up a less than expected .3% in August.

October has historically been a positive month for stocks, but the gains have been more modest than most other months. The month has a bad reputation because it has been the home of 3 of the worst market crashes in history. There is currently a battle going on between excitement about the AI Supercycle and rising interest rates. We know from experience the market will struggle to move higher if interest rates continue to move higher. We are going to need some relief from the inflationary pressure and that likely starts with oil. If oil prices were to decline by 15-20% we would expect inflationary pressure to ease and interest rates to start moving lower. We believe we need downward pressure on interest rates to get the market moving again.

If you know someone who would be interested in learning more about Greenberg Financial Group or taking advantage of our complementary financial plan, please contact us at 520-544-4909, or visit our website at www.greenbergfinancial.com. As always, the key to successful investing is to have a portfolio that is consistent with your investment objectives and risk tolerance. We invite you to listen to our weekly Money Matters radio show which airs every Sunday Morning from 8:00 AM to 10:00 AM on KNST AM 790. Previous shows are available on the iHeart app, our website, or your favorite podcast platform. Simply type “Money Matters with Dean Greenberg”.

08/31/2026

Monthly Market Update

July is historically the strongest month of the year for stocks, but it took a 2-day rally at month end to get the S&P 500 back to unchanged for the month. The buying we saw at the end of July continued into early August, with multiple new all-time highs for the major indices as the AI trade was “back on”. Earnings are the market driver, and we continued to see quarterly earnings reports from major AI companies that showed growth is strong and accelerating. The seemingly endless war with Iran continued to drag on with no end in site and that kept oil prices elevated which put upward pressure on interest rates. With mid-term elections quickly approaching, many politicians are using our lack of understanding when it comes to data centers to make political hay. Data center bashing is becoming increasingly popular and will likely continue until the election. At the end of August, the S&P 500 had gained 2.6% and is now 12.3% higher for the year. Oil prices were volatile during the month but ended just over 1% higher. Gold had been languishing this year, but renewed interest sent the precious metal nearly 10% higher in August. The rate on the 30 years Treasury Bond hit the highest level in 19 years but the benchmark 10-year interest rate was just fractionally higher.

The month began with a nice rally on news Trump had called off further attacks against Iran in favor or economic sanctions. Early in the week there was some news about potential peace talks that never developed, but the news was enough for a 4th straight day of gains and a new all-time high for the S&P 500. During the week we learned the AI Supercycle was producing earnings growth nearly double expectations, and we ended the week with a government jobs report that showed jobs were lost in July, which took pressure off rising interest rates. At the end of a strong week the S&P 500 had gained 3.6%. During the second week oil and interest rates kept working their way higher but were offset by reports that retail and wholesale inflation numbers were in line with expectations. The week ended with the S&P 500 up another .4%. During the third week we began to see selling pressure as oil and interest rates continued to edge higher. The government announced a major new bond purchase program designed to take pressure off rising interest rates, but investors dissected the news and determine it was a “nothing burger”. It was the only week in August with stocks closing lower and the S&P 500 shed 1.1%. The final week of the month all eyes were on Nvidia. The rally has been driven by AI and Nvidia drives AI, so their report is the most closely watched each quarter. Wednesday night they once again report a blockbuster quarter that sent their shares 10% higher on Thursday and the overall market came along for the ride. At the end of the week the S&P 500 had gained .5%.

We found out in July that history is simply a guide and not an absolute. With that said, September has been by far the worst month of the year for stocks and the only month that has, on average, closed lower. It is also the only month that has closed lower more often than higher. October has traditionally seen the market move higher, but it has been the home of 3 major crashes. We are always cautious during September and the first few weeks of October. We aren’t big sellers, but we are slow to invest new funds and do not typically take aggressive new positions. Despite geopolitical concerns that have kept oil and interest rates elevated, the S&P 500 has moved to multiple new all-time highs this year. An agreement with Iran that would open the Strait of Hormuz could be a game changer that could push oil and interest rates lower. If that were to happen, we could see a positive market reaction, but we believe the best approach in the short term is caution.
If you know someone who would be interested in learning more about Greenberg Financial Group or taking advantage of our complementary financial plan, please contact us at 520-544-4909, or visit our website at www.greenbergfinancial.com. As always, the key to successful investing is to have a portfolio that is consistent with your investment objectives and risk tolerance. We invite you to listen to our weekly Money Matters radio show which airs every Sunday Morning from 8:00 AM to 10:00 AM on KNST AM 790.

08/03/2026

July was a reminder historic trends are a guideline and not an absolute. We came into July with the S&P 500 nearly 10% higher this year and with the knowledge July is traditionally far and away the best month for stock market performance. The seemingly endless war with Iran kept oil prices elevated which weighed on stocks & interest rates, but it was a shift in sentiment that was the big story. Investors who had been quick to bid technology stocks higher on the data center explosion started to doubt the massive spending required would ever produce the revenue they had been expecting. Technology stocks lead the market higher and lower and the aggressive selling, particularly in the memory chip sector, kept pressure on the overall market throughout the month. Many of the high beta names saw declines of 50% or more, but a strong rally in the last 2 days of trading helped the S&P 500 rally back to where is started the month and is now 9.4% higher this year. The semiconductor index hit a 6-month low during the month leaving the tech heavy NASDAQ with a closing loss for the month of 3.2%, but still 9.2% higher this year. The ongoing war with Iran sent oil prices 22% higher in July and that pushed the 10-year Treasury yield up 6% to the highest level in more than a year and the 30-year interest rate to the highest level in 19 years!

The month began with 2 quiet days ahead of the Independence Day holiday. The first full week of trading was volatile with memory chip stocks leading the way up and down and the on again off again war with Iran back on. Despite the volatility a rebound in chip stocks at week’s end help the S&P 500 gain 1.2%. During the second week we learned the plunge in oil prices in June helped bring consumer and wholesale prices down but that good news was drown out by aggressive selling of chip stocks sending the S&P down 1.6% for the week and into the red for the month. The third week saw a rebound in the chip sector, but the market continued lower as the war with Iran pushed oil prices back above $90 and interest rates to levels not seen in over a year. The selling continued into the final week with interest rates moving higher after the Federal Reserve Open Market committee decided to leave the discount rate unchanged until their meeting in September. Interest rates are moving higher due to concerns about oil prices driving inflation which could ease if oil prices plunge as they did in June. While most did expect the Fed to leave interest rates unchanged, the spike in Treasury yields after the announcement was unsettling. In addition, a midweek selloff that appeared to be related to the unwinding of a failed hedge fund sent the market sharply lower before a strong rebound on Thursday and Friday. At the end of the week the S&P 500 had actually gained 1%.

The change in sentiment we saw in July is going to take time to run its course. Strong earnings from many of the artificial intelligent companies are helping, but investors want to see the spending slow until results appear. The slowdown in spending can happen rather quickly, but seeing the results of the spending is going to take time. The war with Iran is likely to drive oil prices which in turn are driving interest rates. Interest rates are more of an issue than oil prices, but they currently seem to be moving together. IF we see a calming of the war, we are likely to see oil prices move lower which could bode well for interest rates and stock prices. IF oil prices continue to rise the upward pressure on interest rates will continue which is likely to weigh on stocks. We continue to believe we are in an artificial intelligence Supercycle, and while we are looking for opportunities in the current environment it will be hard for the market to rally if rates continue higher.

If you know someone who would be interested in learning more about Greenberg Financial Group or taking advantage of our complementary financial plan, please contact us at 520-544-4909, or visit our website at www.greenbergfinancial.com. As always, the key to successful investing is to have a portfolio that is consistent with your investment objectives and risk tolerance. We invite you to listen to our weekly Money Matters radio show which airs every Sunday Morning from 8:00 AM to 10:00 AM on KNST AM 790. Previous shows are available on the iHeart app, our website, or your favorite podcast platform. Simply type “Money Matters with Dean Greenberg”.

06/30/2026

Monthly Market Update

We ended May with a 9th consecutive week of gains, something not seen in 63 years, and we suggested a period of consolidation/correction was likely. However, we began June with the market moving higher during the first 2 days before profit taking started to become more prominent. The market driver has been the artificial intelligence (AI) revolution led primarily by the hyperscalers, the massive technology companies that build, own, and operate enormous global data centers to provide cloud computing, networking, and data storage services. During the month we began to see doubts about the profitability of the massive amounts of money these companies are spending on AI and we saw a rotation from the sector into more defensive names. Technology is the leader both up and down and weakness in this area sent the S&P 500 1.1% lower for the month but still 9.6% higher at midyear. The technology index lost 2.8% in June but it is 12.8% higher this year. The second quarter performance for both indices was the best quarterly rally since 2020, and small cap stocks had their best first half in 35 years! The benchmark 10-year Treasury ended the month little changed but is still higher on the year. With the on again off again opening of the Strait of Hormuz, oil plunged 20% in June but is still higher than where it ended 2025. Gold continued under pressure, losing another 12% in June and below where it was when the year began.

The month began with a nice rally on news Nvidia and Microsoft had teamed up on a new processor, but at midweek the Iranian conflict heated up sending the S&P 500 into the red. Friday we learned 172,000 new jobs were created vs expectations of 80,000 and that sent interest rates higher and the market lower. The tech heavy NASDAQ had its worst day in over a year, and the S&P 500 ended the week with a loss of 2.6%. The second week saw a report inflation hit a 3-year high, but it was shrugged off as related to the spike in oil which most saw as temporary. The focus during the week was the much-anticipated SpaceX IPO on Friday which went smoothly with the stock closing the week 19% above the IPO price. Positive action from the IPO helped the S&P 500 close the week with a gain of .7%. The third week began with news of a tentative peace agreement that sent oil sharply lower and the market nicely higher. During the week investor’s excitement about SpaceX drove its market cap above that of Microsoft & Amazon before cooler heads prevailed. The week ended with the Juneteenth holiday and a .9% gain for the S&P 500. The final full week of the month saw the S&P 500, despite plunging oil prices, move lower every day as doubt about AI spending sent the hyperscalers lower. The week ended with the S&P 500 losing another 2%. The last 2 days saw buying ahead of the historically strong month of July.

July has been far and away the best month of the year for stock market performance with an average gain of nearly 2% and a higher close more than 60% of the time. Valuations are about 10% above historic norms but were made more reasonable by June’s weakness. Global uncertainty is likely to continue and while plunging oil prices are important, they are not as critical to the market as interest rates. It may take a period for the drop in oil prices to show up in the inflation numbers, but we would expect to see less pressure on interest rates in July. If oil prices remain at their current level and interest rates return to pre-war levels, we would expect the market to respond favorably. It is also going to be important for the hyperscalers to once again attract interest as they are the fuel that drives the engine.

If you know someone who would be interested in learning more about Greenberg Financial Group or taking advantage of our complementary financial plan, please contact us at 520-544-4909, or visit our website at www.greenbergfinancial.com. As always, the key to successful investing is to have a portfolio that is consistent with your investment objectives and risk tolerance. We invite you to listen to our weekly Money Matters radio show which airs every Sunday Morning from 8:00 AM to 10:00 AM on KNST AM 790. Previous shows are available on the iHeart app, our website, or your favorite podcast platform. Simply type “Money Matters with Dean Greenberg”.

05/29/2026

Monthly Market Update

May is historically a quiet month for the market and coming off the best month for the S&P 500 in 6 years we thought it might be a place where we would see some profit taking. However, investors chose to ignore the war, rising oil prices and rising interest rates and focused instead on the AI revolution, sending the S&P 500 higher every single week. The month ended with another move to new all-time highs, equaling the longest consecutive week winning streak for the S&P 500 since 1963. Last month we asked if the market can be this strong with so many things working against it, what will happen if global news starts to improve. In May we saw more of the same, uncertain news that seemed to have no impact on the market. At the end of the month the S&P 500 had gained 5.1% and is now 10.7% higher this year. Technology stocks continued to lead the rally with a year-to-date gain of 16%. Oil prices are still elevated but did move 16% lower during May and gold was fractionally lower. The interest rate on the 10-year Treasury edged higher.

The month began on a Friday with the S&P 500 moving to a new all-time high. The first full week of the month was full of war news with Iran shooting missiles at its neighbors while peace talks were stalled. However, the market did believe some type of agreement was imminent, which sent oil prices lower nearly every day and a better-than-expected government jobs report on Friday helped the S&P 500 end the week with a gain of 2.3%. The following week peace talks appeared to be stalled which sent oil prices steadily higher, but the market shrugged it off to focus on President Trump’s trip to China thinking the Chinese might be able to intervene and end the war. The S&P 500 moved steadily higher during the week. When Trump left China without a peace deal the S&P 500 erased most of those gains but did end the week 10 points higher which kept the win streak alive. Interest rates took center stage during the 3rd week as inflation concerns, primarily tied to oil, became a focus. The interest rate on the benchmark 10-year Treasury hit the highest level since January 2025 and the rate on the 30-year bond hit a 16-year high. Midweek hopes for peace sent oil and interest rates sharply lower and helped the S&P 500 end the week with a gain of .9%. The final week was shortened by the Memorial Day weekend but was more of the same. Peace and the opening of the Strait of Hormuz continued to be evasive, but oil prices and interest rates moved lower, and stocks continued to move higher.

Summer has traditionally been a good period for stocks with June, July, and August all trending higher. Last month we said if the market can repeatedly hit new all-time highs with war, rising oil price, rising inflation and rising interest rates, what will happen when things actually start to get better. We ask the same question this month. Valuation continues to be a topic and while stocks are richly valued, the valuations are not silly. The forward price to earnings ratio for the S&P 500 is currently around 21.5 versus the 10-year average of 19.5. A valuation approximately 10% above the historic norm would seem reasonable in the AI revolution we are living. With that said, we have not had a consecutive week rally of this magnitude in 63 years so a pullback would appear to be imminent and appropriate. With that said, barring some type of headline making event, one would expect pullbacks to be modest and an opportunity to add to names we have been watching as an end to the war could bring lower oil prices and higher stock prices.

If you know someone who would be interested in learning more about Greenberg Financial Group or taking advantage of our complementary financial plan, please contact us at 520-544-4909, or visit our website at www.greenbergfinancial.com. As always, the key to successful investing is to have a portfolio that is consistent with your investment objectives and risk tolerance. We invite you to listen to our weekly Money Matters radio show which airs every Sunday Morning from 8:00 AM to 10:00 AM on KNST AM 790. Previous shows are available on the iHeart app, our website, or your favorite podcast platform. Simply type “Money Matters with Dean Greenberg”.

04/30/2026

Monthly Market Update

April has historically been one of the better months for stock market performance, but we suggested at the end of last month that the war would likely play a role in market performance. However, here we are at the end of April with oil prices and interest rates higher and the war in some type of standoff, but the S&P 500 had its best month since the end of the pandemic 6 years ago! Not only did the widely followed index erase all the loss from March, it set several new all-time highs during the month, not something we expected to see in this environment. Several times during the month it appeared the war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz might end, and the market greeted those reports with a rally to new all-time highs. It appears investors are viewing war and higher oil prices as temporary and are focusing on the artificial intelligence revolution. The term we use for these types of moves is FOMO, fear of missing out. At month end the S&P 500 had rallied 10.4%, the best month for the widely followed index since the pandemic and is now 5.3% higher for the year. Oil prices rose nearly 4% and gold ended the month down 1.5%. The rate on the 10-year Treasury ended the month little changed from the end of March.

The month began on a Wednesday before the 3-day Easter weekend and with little in the way of market moving news the S&P 500 edged .8% higher. Despite the Good Friday holiday, the government did release the monthly jobs report, and it was much better than expected which kicked off the first full week of trading with a nice rally. Mid-week Trump issued a 2 week cease fire that ignited an explosive move higher in the major indices that continued through the end of the week. For the week, the S&P 500 gained 3.6%. The rally continued into the following week with the tech heavy NASDAQ having its longest consecutive day winning streak in 34 years! On Friday Trump reported the Strait of Hormuz had reopened which sent oil down $10 a barrel and the S&P up 4.5% for the week. The following week we learned the Strait had not opened and oil once again began to climb. Trump extended the ceasefire which helped the S&P 500 end the week with a fractional gain. The final week saw stalemate as Iran continued to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed, Trump continued the cease fire and oil prices moved steadily higher. On the last day of the month strong earnings from several major companies propelled the S&P to another all-time high.

May has historically been a higher month 60% of the time, but it is the only month with an average return of 0. We expect some resolution of the war and rising oil prices during May and if April is an example, the market wants to go higher. If the S&P 500 can gain 10% in an environment as uncertain as we have had, it will be interesting to see what happens if there is some resolution of war and rising oil prices. In mid-April we saw a $10 plunge in the price of oil on a report the Strait of Hormuz had reopened and while the report turned out not to be true, it is an example of what can happen once oil begins to flow again. Stock valuations are elevated, which is not unusual considering the artificial intelligence revolution we are experiencing. While the risk of a major downside move is diminished, a headline making event can always change that thesis. We believe the biggest risk to the market is a long-term continued rise in interest rates and oil which would have negative impacts on economic growth.

If you know someone who would be interested in learning more about Greenberg Financial Group or taking advantage of our complementary financial plan, please contact us at 520-544-4909, or visit our website at www.greenbergfinancial.com. As always, the key to successful investing is to have a portfolio that is consistent with your investment objectives and risk tolerance. We invite you to listen to our weekly Money Matters radio show which airs every Sunday Morning from 8:00 AM to 10:00 AM on KNST AM 790. Previous shows are available on the iHeart app, our website, or your favorite podcast platform. Simply type “Money Matters with Dean Greenberg”.

03/31/2026

Oil Weighs on Stocks

For several months we have been noting stock valuations were stretched and a 5% to 10% pullback could come at any time. However, with the enthusiasm for AI and the likelihood of lower interest rates ahead, we felt it would take some type of headline making news to move the market lower. The Iran war was that headline making news. It was not the war per se, but the rise in oil prices and inflation expectations that came with the war that caused the concern. We often say valuations do not matter, until they do. The thing the market hates most is uncertainty and the war has given us that in spades with the S&P 500 losing ground for 5 straight weeks. Excitement about AI has been driving technology stocks higher but higher oil prices and rising interest rates have weighed on that market leading sector. At the end of the month the S&P 500 had lost 5.1% and is now 4.6% lower this year. The important technology sector lost 4.8% and is down 7.1% in 2026. Oil prices were the biggest concern with a massive 52% price increase in March, and interest rates also rose with the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury going up 9%.

The month began with news the U S and Israel had launch a massive air strike against Iran. The market opened lower on Monday but worked its way back into positive territory by days end. However, over the next few days reality set in as we saw the biggest one week jump in oil prices in history. In addition, we learned the economy had lost jobs in February for the first time in several months and investors began hitting the sell button driving the S&P 500 down 2% at week’s end. The second week began with a rally after oil prices spiked to $119 over the weekend but then dropped back to $80. We then learned Iran had closed the important Strait of Hormuz which send oil prices higher and stocks lower. The S&P 500 ended that week down another 1.6%. Oil prices continued to rise during the 3rd week of the month, and we also received a report that wholesale inflation jumped at an annualized rate of 8.4%. The inflation report sent interest rates to the highest level since early January and that, combined with higher oil prices, sent the S&P 500 down another 1.9%. The last full week of the month was more of the same with rising oil prices and lower stock prices. The market leading technology sector came under pressure on concerns about rising oil prices increasing the costs of running their data centers. The week ended with another 2.1% loss for the S&P 500. On the last day of the month the S&P 500 opened 1.7% higher before closing the day with a gain of nearly 3% on talk Trump may want to end the war with Iran.

April has historically been the 3rd best month for stock market performance with a positive close 65% of the time. This April will clearly not be a normal month with the uncertainty surrounding the war. A prolonged conflict with oil prices and interest rates continuing to rise will likely put more pressure on stock prices, while an end to hostilities should create a more positive environment. We have seen the valuation concerns we have been talking about somewhat mitigated by the selling in technology stocks and we are seeing many stocks selling at price to earnings ratios we have not seen in years. It might be a good time to be reminded that every stock market decline in history has been an opportunity to buy, but we need to see a firming of technology names. There will be an end to the selling, but we will only know that in hindsight. We have been using the market decline to slowly put some money to work.

If you know someone who would be interested in learning more about Greenberg Financial Group or taking advantage of our complementary financial plan, please contact us at 520-544-4909, or visit our website at www.greenbergfinancial.com. As always, the key to successful investing is to have a portfolio that is consistent with your investment objectives and risk tolerance. We invite you to listen to our weekly Money Matters radio show which airs every Sunday Morning from 8:00 AM to 10:00 AM on KNST AM 790. Previous shows are available on the iHeart app, our website, or your favorite podcast platform. Simply type “Money Matters with Dean Greenberg”.

03/20/2026

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