Padilla Wealth Management

True or false: Americans in March 2026 are applying for fewer mortgages than they were during the Great Recession.

True. And it's not even close.

96 OF THE 100 LOWEST NUMBER OF WEEKLY MORTGAGE APPLICATIONS SINCE 1999 HAVE HAPPENED IN THE LAST 3 YEARS! (according to the Mortgage Bankers Association's Mortgage Application Index)

Yet, unemployment today is a fraction of what it was during the financial crisis.

People aren't staying out of the market because they can't qualify. The market is gridlocked. Here's why. 👇

1️⃣ Millions of homeowners locked in at 3 percent during the pandemic. Selling means giving that up for another mortgage that may have a higher interest rate. So they're not moving.

2️⃣ If existing owners aren't selling, inventory can become thin, prices might stay elevated, and buyers wait for something to change.

3️⃣ Most are waiting for rates to drop. But when they do, demand may pick up, competition returns, and that window closes faster than expected.

Here's the truth about market timing: it almost never works the way people picture it.

The better question isn't "When is the right time to buy?" It's "Am I financially ready to move when the right opportunity comes?" 📋

The timeline for normal shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains an important focus for global markets.

Recent prediction market activity suggests uncertainty around how quickly traffic through the strait could return to typical levels, even if broader diplomatic progress continues.

The Strait of Hormuz is a key route for global energy shipments, so changes in shipping activity can affect oil markets, fuel prices, transportation costs, and broader inflation trends.

Traders recently placed a 38% probability on traffic returning to normal by July 1, with higher odds for a later timeline.

While these numbers can change quickly, they offer a snapshot of how markets are weighing geopolitical risk, energy supply, and timing.

For households and businesses, the broader takeaway is that global shipping routes can significantly affect everyday costs, especially when energy markets are already under pressure.

Traders are skeptical of Iran timeline for Strait of Hormuz reopening Despite reports Iran could return the passageway to normal traffic flows within a month of a peace deal, Kalshi traders thought that was unlikely.

What happens to your 529 account if your kids don't go to college? With rising college costs and changing job markets, more students are considering alternatives to traditional four-year colleges.

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According to a Fidelity article, for the ‘25-’26 school year, the average published all-in cost at a 4-year public school for out-of-state students is $45,780, and the average private school costs $60,920.

So, because today is 529 Day (it’s 5/29, get it? 😂), it’s a good time to revisit one of the most flexible tools for tackling those numbers.

What 529 plans actually do:

📚 Tax-free growth and tax-free withdrawals for qualified education expenses. State tax treatment will vary, and so will fees and expenses.

📚 Use them for college, trade school, K-12 tuition, and apprenticeships. A 529 can even repay up to $10,000 in student loans.

📚 Whether a 529 qualifies for a state tax deduction will depend on your state of residence, as state tax laws and treatment may vary from federal tax laws.

📚 Superfund up to $95,000 in a single year by using five years of gift tax exclusions at once. But remember if you make nonqualified distributions, earnings will be subject to income tax and a 10 percent federal penalty tax.

📚 Minimal impact on financial aid—parent-owned 529s are assessed at a maximum rate of 5.6 percent.

Grandparents, parents, aunts, or uncles can contribute.

And starting in 2026, the K-12 annual withdrawal limit doubles to $20,000.

The best time to start was years ago. The second-best time is now.

In the world of finance, the effects of the "confidence gap" can be especially apparent.

Bridging the Confidence Gap In the world of finance, the effects of the

Most parents think the last tuition check means game over for college. The data says it's halftime.

50 percent of parents with adult children still provide regular financial support, spending $1,474 a month to do so. That's more than twice what they're putting toward their own retirement.

Here's what "just helping out a little" actually looks like:

✅ 75 percent of parents aged 45+ are financially supporting at least one adult child, even though over half of those children can meet their own basic needs, according to a 2025 AARP survey.

✅ 42 percent of supporting parents report financial stress. 9 percent have retired early because of it.

✅ 47 percent say they've sacrificed their own financial position for the sake of their kids.

✅ 18 percent say the support could continue indefinitely. They don't see an end in sight.

This isn't about being less generous. It's about being intentional.

Whether your kid just graduated, graduated five years ago, or is still in school, the question is the same: Is your support happening by design or by default?

That's worth a conversation.

Federal Reserve officials appear increasingly focused on how persistent inflation could shape future interest rate decisions.

Minutes from the most recent Fed meeting show that many officials supported keeping rates steady, while also noting that higher rates could become appropriate if inflation remains above the central bank’s 2% target.

The meeting also reflected a notable level of disagreement. The committee voted to hold its benchmark rate at 3.5% to 3.75%, but four members dissented — the highest number of dissents since 1992.

A key issue was whether the Fed’s statement should continue to suggest that a rate cut remained the more likely next move. Several officials preferred more flexible language, given ongoing inflation pressures.

For households and businesses, these discussions matter because interest rate decisions can influence borrowing costs, savings yields, mortgage rates, credit card rates, and broader economic conditions.

Fed officials see rate hike ahead if inflation stays elevated, minutes show A majority of officials anticipated that interest rate increases would be necessary if the Iran war continued to aggravate inflation.

Discover the YOLO Economy and why Millennials are prioritizing experiences over material things in this thought-provoking article.

How Boomers and Millennials Differ The YOLO Economy is a focus on experiences over material possessions, prompting Boomers to consider a similar mindset.

Yes, Memorial Day marks the unofficial start of summer. But let's not forget what this day is really about.

Today, we remember those who gave everything. The men and women who served and never came home.

Some of us knew them. Some of us are here because of them.

However you spend today, take a moment to pause. Enjoy the long weekend, but hold space for what it actually means.

To the families carrying that loss: we honor them with you.

Are you planning to work after taking Social Security benefits? Know the rules.

How Will Working Affect Social Security Benefits? Knowing the rules may help you decide when to start benefits.