10/03/2026
Bluespring Wealth - California Fall Quarterly Newsletter is Here: Something Has to Give
Growth, Rates & the AI Economy
We entered the year embarking on a broadening growth phase. Growth was firming domestically and internationally, earnings were strong and broadening, inflation was cooling, and market leadership was expanding beyond a narrow group of names.
The conflict with Iran, disruption surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, and subsequent spike in Oil introduced a reignition of the nagging inflation impulse that markets can’t ignore. Interest rates have marched steadily higher, valuation multiples have compressed, and what had been a relatively clean transition toward stronger global growth has been thrown some pressures to contend with.
As the third quarter closed, the market remains near all-time highs, it’s been more of a sideways consolidation and rotation of markets since Summer. The underlying economy has shown surprisingly little evidence that the geopolitical shock materially altered its trajectory thus far.
The economy remains resilient, but increasingly uneven. Earnings remain quite strong, but interest rates are moving higher. The AI capital expenditure cycle continues to accelerate, while some of the more rate-sensitive areas of the economy are beginning to see the bite that comes with higher rates.
Beneath the headline indexes, market breadth has deteriorated considerably. That leaves us with perhaps the most important question heading toward 2027:
How long can the incredibly strong AI and capital expenditure cycle overpower everything else?
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