Scott T. Dewhurst, CLU, ChFC, CPFA

🚨 Weekly Market Update: Cuts Aren’t Cutting

Despite a meaningful drop in the Fed funds rate since September 2024, the 10-Year Yield hasn’t followed suit. In fact, it’s moved slightly higher.

This suggests the Fed’s influence over the long end of the yield curve may be slipping, potentially due to inflation expectations, fiscal policy, or supply/demand pressures.

👀For more information or resources/checklists please visit Dewhurst Wealth Management Website www.Dewhurstwealth.com

🚨 Weekly Market Update: P/E Divergence

For years, the S&P 500’s P/E looked similar whether you used the cap-weighted index (which gives more weight to bigger companies) or the equal-weighted version (which treats all companies the same).

But since late 2022, around the launch of ChatGPT, the cap-weighted P/E has surged while the equal-weighted version has barely moved, meaning most companies haven’t seen the same gains.

👀For more information or resources/checklists please visit Dewhurst Wealth Management Website www.Dewhurstwealth.com

🚨 Weekly Market Update: All Income, No Appreciation – 20 Years

Over the past 20 years, the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index, the benchmark for traditional fixed income, has delivered a total return of +3.3% per year. A closer look reveals nearly all of it came from interest income.

The price return, which reflects how much bond prices themselves have gone up or down, was actually negative at -0.37% per year.

👀For more information or resources/checklists please visit Dewhurst Wealth Management Website www.Dewhurstwealth.com

🚨 Weekly Market Update: Bad Breadth Rally

Over 40% of Nasdaq 100 companies, 41% of the S&P 500, and a staggering 51% of the Russell 2000 are posting negative year-to-date total returns.

That means the majority of stocks, especially those of smaller and mid-sized companies, aren’t participating in the rally.

👀For more information or resources/checklists please visit Dewhurst Wealth Management Website www.Dewhurstwealth.com

Happy Veterans Day!

🚨 Weekly Market Update: Outsized Optimism

It may seem odd, but the best-performing companies on the Nasdaq this year are the least financially sound.

Companies with no revenues have surged 44%, while unprofitable firms are up 19% — far ahead of profitable Nasdaq companies, which are only up 5%. This rally is being fueled by excitement around future potential, especially in areas like AI, rather than current earnings.

👀For more information or resources/checklist please visit Dewhurst Wealth Management Website www.Dewhurstwealth.com

🚨 Weekly Market Update: Trillion Dollar Tab

Margin Debt, money borrowed by investors from their brokerage firms to invest in stocks, is now at a record high, climbing to $1.1 trillion in September 2025.

While borrowing can amplify gains during bull markets, it also magnifies losses when volatility strikes. Historically, spikes in margin debt have preceded periods of heightened market stress, as forced selling accelerates downturns.

👀For more information or resources/checklist please visit Dewhurst Wealth Management Website www.Dewhurstwealth.com

🚨 Weekly Market Update: Dollar Déjà Vu

The U.S. dollar has fallen more than 10% so far this year, driven by renewed trade policy concerns and shifting expectations around the Federal Reserve’s rate-cut path.

Interestingly, the chart below shows us the last time we saw a decline of this magnitude was during President Trump’s first term in 2017—and the pattern unfolding in this second term looks strikingly similar.

👀For more information or resources/checklist please visit Dewhurst Wealth Management Website www.Dewhurstwealth.com

🚨 Weekly Market Update: Market’s Expensive Taste

The stock market is now more expensive than it’s ever been based on Price to Sales. As shown in the chart, the S&P 500’s price-to-sales ratio just hit 3.33, more than double its historical median of 1.63.

This matters because high prices today often make it harder to see strong returns going forward.

👀For more information or resources/checklist please visit Dewhurst Wealth Management Website www.Dewhurstwealth.com

🚨 Weekly Market Update: Rates Fall, Bonds Stall

The Federal Reserve just began its second rate-cutting cycle after a year-long pause—but bonds may not respond the way many expect.

Last time this happened, most of the gains in fixed income came before the Fed’s first cut in September 2024. Once that cut arrived, growth and inflation data surprised to the upside, yields reversed higher, and bonds fell—defying the usual rate-cut rally narrative.

👀For more information or resources/checklist please visit Dewhurst Wealth Management Website www.Dewhurstwealth.com

🚨 Weekly Market Update: Cutting to the Chase

Since 1987, the S&P 500 has averaged a 10% return in the 12 months following a rate cut.

But the difference depends on why the Fed is cutting: when cuts happen outside of a recession, the market has historically gained over 17% on average. In contrast, when cuts occur during a recession, average returns are slightly negative.

👀For more information or resources/checklist please visit Dewhurst Wealth Management Website www.Dewhurstwealth.com