Wickham Financial & Insurance Services

The Biggest Risks Threatening This Highflying Stock Market Despite plenty of tailwinds, some investors still see causes for concern.

Recap of Last Week

• Markets extended a relief rally on optimism about a potential U.S.–Iran deal and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
• Lower energy prices boosted Industrials and Materials; Technology gained on improved risk sentiment.
• Energy and Healthcare sectors lagged.
• The Fed (first meeting under Kevin Warsh) kept rates unchanged at 3.5%–3.75%.
• Fed messaging was more hawkish than expected, pushing short-term yields higher and flattening the yield curve.
• Long-term investors were reassured the Fed is prepared for future inflation risks.
• Economic data showed resilience, supported by strong retail sales and expected declines in gas prices.
• A stronger outlook for U.S. rates helped drive the U.S. dollar to one-year highs.
• Precious metals dipped slightly due to dollar strength.
• Crypto weakened, with investor focus shifting to AI and semiconductor stocks.

Week Ahead
• Markets will focus on the balance between strong growth and central bank inflation control.
• Falling energy prices may ease pressure on policymakers.
• PMI data (Tuesday): Australia, France, Germany, U.K., U.S.
o Recent trend: Manufacturing expanding, Services weakening (with some exceptions).
o Prices paid component will provide clues on inflation.
• Key inflation releases:
o Canada CPI (Monday)
o Australia CPI (Wednesday)
o U.S. PCE (Thursday) – the Fed’s preferred inflation measure.

Social Security’s Trust Fund Will Run Dry In 2032, Trustees Say. What It Means for Your Benefits. The program’s “trust fund” is going to run dry even sooner than expected. Here’s what to know.

Phased Retirement Can Help Smooth the Transition A gradual approach to retirement can be a positive experience for employees, employers, and customers.

Recap (Last Week)

• Prior week ended with a sharp selloff after strong U.S. jobs data pushed the dollar and Treasury yields higher.
• Markets rebounded early in the week as beaten-down semiconductor and AI stocks stabilized.
• Focus shifted to inflation data and central bank actions.
• ECB raised rates from 2% → 2.25% to combat energy-driven inflation, though real rates remain negative (still stimulative).
• Equity sentiment improved as inflation appeared less severe than feared.
• Most S&P 500 sectors rose; leaders: Materials, Consumer Staples, Technology; laggards: Communication, Energy.
• Commodity markets driven by U.S.–Iran tensions and diplomacy signals.
• Oil prices remained steady despite geopolitical risks; supply concerns eased somewhat.
• Precious metals fell sharply, then rebounded after the U.S. called off a planned strike on Iran.
• Crypto saw a brief “risk-on” rally but stayed mostly quiet; Bitcoin consolidated well below its all-time high.
• SpaceX IPO debuted Friday, valuing the company around $1.77T+, rising above $2T in early trading.

The Week Ahead

• Markets will focus on central bank actions and inflation data globally.
• Bank of Japan expected to hike rates (still accommodative despite increase).
• Reserve Bank of Australia expected to pause at 4.35%.
• UK CPI (Wednesday) and Bank of England decision (Thursday)—likely no change (hold at 3.75%).
• U.S. retail sales (Wednesday) and FOMC meeting led by new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh—no rate change expected.
• Warsh’s press conference will be key for insights on future policy (focus on productivity gains and balance sheet reduction).
• Ongoing uncertainty around a potential U.S.–Iran agreement, with conflicting signals raising doubts about a finalized deal.

The Most Common Tax Traps in Retirement — and How to Avoid Them A little strategic planning will help your money go farther in retirement.

Inflation Is Boosting Next Year’s Social Security Raise. Here’s the New Estimate. For now, many older adults are stretching their budgets on the basics.

Recap of Last Week

Semiconductor rally pushed major indexes to new highs early in the week.
Broadcom earnings (lack of strong forward guidance) triggered ~12.5% drop and rotation out of high‑flying chip stocks.
Rotation benefited broader markets, sending Russell 2000 and DJIA to record highs.
Strong U.S. jobs data (172k) reinforced resilient economy; unemployment steady at 4.3%.
Treasury yields jumped post‑jobs report (10Y > 4.5%, 30Y > 5.0%).
U.S. dollar strengthened vs. major currencies amid strong U.S. outlook vs. weak Eurozone GDP (-0.3%).
Dollar strength pressured gold and silver; commodities mixed with oil rising on geopolitical tensions.
Crypto fell further, pressured by tech rotation and Bitcoin sales by MicroStrategy (MSTR).

The Week Ahead

Focus on global inflation data: Japan, China (early week), U.S. CPI (Wed), PPI (Thu), Europe (Fri).
Strong prior inflation data reduced rate-cut expectations and raised odds of potential hikes.
Yen under pressure; markets watching for possible Bank of Japan currency intervention.
Markets will assess whether equity rotation continues or if higher rates and geopolitical risks weigh broadly.
Key sentiment indicators: University of Michigan survey and inflation expectations (Friday).
Notable IPO expected Friday adding market interest.

Should You Start Taking Social Security as Early as You Can? You would be better off claiming early If you die young, but if you don't, starting too early can lock you into reduced payments for decades. So, what’s the right move?

How Many Americans Work Past 65? The Numbers Behind Today's Changing Retirement About one in five Americans age 65+ are still working, showing retirement often includes some continued employment. Many older workers shift to part-time roles, with a much higher share working reduced hours than those ages 55 to 64.