09/16/2026
With today’s Fed meeting and the possibility of a rate hike, we wanted to share a piece of information that may be helpful as there will undoubtedly be mixed opinions in publications about what the Fed should be doing to navigate the domestic economy and how it is being impacted by inflation largely derived from geopolitical conflicts overseas.
What should investors know? History suggests there may be less reason to panic than the headlines imply.
Since 1990, U.S. stocks have actually performed better, on average, following rate hikes than following rate cuts.
The logic behind the data is fairly intuitive: rate hikes are typically a reflection of a strong, growing economy that may be running a little hot, while rate cuts are often implemented in response to economic weakness or stress. Think about the backdrop surrounding the Fed’s cuts during periods like 2008.
There will undoubtedly be plenty of discussion around why the Fed may hike rates—and those
considerations are certainly important. However, we wanted to share this particular data point
because it can provide a different perspective, beyond what you may be hearing from CNBC, The Wall Street Journal, and other financial media.
As always, please reach out if you have any questions on this particular topic or if there is
anything else top of mind.
