10/05/2026
Last week the unmanaged major market indices finished largely lower with the technology heavy NASDAQ being the exception gaining a little less than half a percent. Foreign stocks as measured by the Global Dow gave up almost one and a half percent while the S&P 500 slipped a little more than a quarter of a percent. Once again the yield on the Ten Year Treasury climbed pushing the yield to highs not seen in nearly twenty years at almost five and three tenths percent. The Dollar gained nine tenths of a percent while both Gold and Oil fell roughly three and a half percent and almost one and a quarter percent respectively.
On the economics front there were three key data releases that market watchers were tuned into. The first of these was the final reading for Gross Domestic Product in the second quarter which was revised upwards to two and two tenths percent with the figure for the first quarter being revised upwards to two and a half percent. The previous estimate for the second quarter’s GDP was one and a half percent. These levels of GDP growth may be a signal to the Federal Reserve that the U.S. economy is strong enough to withstand additional rate increases.
The second significant data release was Friday’s employment report for September. The headline unemployment number ticked up a tenth of a percent to four and two tenths percent. The increase in the unemployment rate was largely attributed to workers re-entering the labor market. For September there were twenty-nine thousand new jobs created which was a far cry from the ninety thousand expected. Job creation numbers for July and August were revised downwards by sixty thousand jobs. The number of people who have been searching for jobs for six months or more was largely steady with over one and nine tenths million people in this category. In September’s employment report we also learned that hourly wages increased at a three percent rate.
Finally there was inflation data in the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge for measuring price increases. The Personal Consumption Expenditures index showed a year over year increase in August of three and four tenths percent, with expenses climbing nine tenths of a percent for the month. These numbers remain well outside of the Federal Reserve’s target of two percent for inflation.
Taken together these reports continue to paint a mixed picture for the U.S. economy. While economic growth is modestly positive, the labor market seems stuck as it has been for months now in what has been categorized as the “no hire/no fire” situation. Inflation continues to grow faster than wages and this may be what the Federal Reserve focusses on when they meet next however most Fed watchers believe that last week’s data make a rate hike this month unlikely; however, prognosticators still see another rate hike before the end of the year.
Unlike last week there is little in the way of economic’s releases this week. Today data is being released on Global Services and tomorrow International Trade figures will be announced. Corporate earnings announcements may be this week’s drivers for the market with a range of companies making announcements. While the number of companies announcing their results is relatively small the companies reporting offer a broad cross section of the economy and may offer insight into the relative health of a number of sectors.
Election Day is twenty-nine days away. The voter registration deadline for many states is rapidly approaching. Many states have been updating and in some cases purging their voter rolls. Democracy relies on an informed citizenry and their participation. Take thirty seconds to verify your voter registration is current at www.vote.org. If you are not currently registered but are eligible to vote contact your state’s Secretary of State’s office or your county’s local election official. This experiment called the United States has endured for two and a half centuries. If it is to last another two hundred and fifty years that will be up to us, We the People.
In addition to Election Day the calendar also says we are now in the fourth quarter of the year. The home stretch. This is the time to review Roth IRA conversions, Qualified Charitable Distributions, tax loss harvesting, gifting and more. At Crest Financial LLC it is a busy time. If you need to review these things we are here for you and encourage you to schedule some time sooner than later.
2026 through three quarters has been a blur! Thank you for letting us be there for you. If you need to slow down and get some clarity with your planning and investments we are happy to help. As always than you for reading and have a terrific week!
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