04/02/2024
IPOs AS A MARKET TELL | Weekly Market Commentary | April 1, 2024
The initial public offering (IPO) market allows institutional investors to incorporate the macroeconomic landscape with individual corporate earnings data — and future earnings forecasts — to ascertain a share price that will hold up to analyst and media scrutiny coupled with overall market dyna...
02/15/2024
OUTLOOK FOR U.S. ECONOMY CONTINUES TO BRIGHTEN | Weekly Market Commentary | February 12, 2024
When we wrote the annual outlook last November, the data was mixed. Some metrics hinted at emerging cracks in the economy while others suggested the growth trajectory in capital markets and the economy had legs. So, the variety of the data produced the narrative that business activity in the New Yea...
01/02/2024
2024 Key Numbers
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11/21/2023
ANATOMY OF A MARKET RALLY | Weekly Market Commentary | November 20, 2023
As the market appears to be taking a rest and consolidating its $2.7 trillion rally leading up to the Thanksgiving holiday, the historical pattern over the last five years suggests the shortened holiday week typically enjoys modest gains. With concerns over the resiliency of consumer spending, howev...
10/31/2023
POSSIBLE HALLOWEEN SCARES FOR MARKETS AND THE ECONOMY | Weekly Market Commentary | October 30, 2023
It’s a tradition here to write about what scares us around Halloween each year. The past few years have offered plenty of material to use in these annual commentaries, but with wars in Israel and Ukraine ongoing, Washington, D.C. dysfunction reaching new heights, the unrelenting rise in interest r...
10/17/2023
EARNINGS HOPE TO KEEP THIS ONE-YEAR-OLD BULL MARKET GOING | Weekly Market Commentary | October 16, 2023
Earnings season has kicked off with several of the big banks and a handful of other blue-chip companies having already reported results for their calendar third quarters. The key headline this reporting season will be the (likely) end of the earnings recession. The October-November reporting season....
10/11/2023
HIGHER FOR LONGER—UPDATING OUR TREASURY FORECAST | Weekly Market Commentary | October 9, 2023
U.S. Treasury yields have seemingly been moving in one direction lately (higher), with the 30-year Treasury yield temporarily breaching 5% for the first time since 2007. The move higher in yields (lower in price) has been unrelenting, with intermediate and longer-term Treasury yields bearing the bru...
10/06/2023
PROSPECTS FOR A FOURTH QUARTER RALLY | Weekly Market Commentary | October 2, 2023
After a difficult September for stocks, investors are surely ready to flip the calendar to October. That’s the month that kicks off the historically strong fourth quarter. Expecting this pattern to repeat this year is tricky given the overhang of a government shutdown, interest rates near 16-year ...
09/26/2023
IS INDIA THE NEW CHINA? | Weekly Market Commentary | September 25, 2023
India has emerged as a compelling economic growth story and an increasingly attractive alternative to China within the emerging markets complex. A growing population with a robust and young workforce, significant infrastructure spending, and an ongoing digital transformation have been key catalysts....
08/29/2023
LESSONS LEARNED FROM THE GRAND TETONS | Weekly Market Commentary | August 28, 2023
The Federal Reserve (Fed) often uses the Jackson Hole Symposium to announce tweaks in policy. Other central bank leaders are also worth watching as investors try to perceive where rates will be in the coming months. In this piece, we discuss some of the opportunities and risks we see in the markets....
08/22/2023
PULLBACK PERSPECTIVE | Weekly Market Commentary | August 21, 2023
Volatility has returned right on cue as U.S. equity markets continue to pull back from overbought levels. The recent jump in interest rates has proven to be too much too fast for stocks to absorb, especially for the heavyweight and longer-duration technology sector. Deteriorating economic conditions...