BingZi Forex Solutions

27 Jul 2026.....Market Updates

The S&P could not stay above 7,500 and closed a tad lower @ 7,412 (range 7,395-7,458) while the DXY and the US10Y could not make new highs and close @ 101.46 (range 101.25-101.53) and @ 4.67% (range 4.65%-4.70%) respectively.

Global S&P PMI data were all positive and above consensus for Australia, the EU, UK and the US.

Japan recorded below consensus numbers.

Oil prices pulled back, as XAU and XAG rallied, as market placed hope that Pakistan will find a new path towards establishing new peace negotiations between the US and Iran.

Trump said that he will soon make a decision whether to launch the "massive attack" that he has been talking about, as the US military conducted its 13th night of air strikes on Iranian military assets.

Wall Street is now grappling with the issue of AI, as report of OpenAI agent breaching Hugging Face for days before OpenAI noticing, raised significant AI safety questions.

At the same time, the US now threaten to sanction Chinese AI developers over alleged intellectual theft .

US accused Chinese AI lab Moonshot of "distilling" its Kimi K3 model from Anthropic's advanced Fable 5 model.

"Distilling "is the process of training AI models using output from more advanced ones, to lower the costs of training a powerful new AI tool.

This could turn sour and compromise the 24 Sep Xi's visit to the US and could also lead to additional China sanctions.

Intel shares fell nearly 8% even after its second quarter results exceeded Wall Street's expectations.

The Magnificent Seven stocks collectively shed nearly $800 billion in market value last week with SpaceX closing at a record low of $115.07, ahead of a major rocket launch.

If that is not enough, Trump applied new tariffs between 10%-12.5% on 60 countries (Singapore included despite US having a trade surplus with Singapore) on Friday, using Section 301of the Trade Act (a legal authority that allows Washington to maintain tariffs for a much longer period).

China opposes the new US tariffs and warns against future trade wars.

Technically, the DXY and Crude Futures had stalled abruptly from their rallies, providing an opportunity for the XAU and XAG to rebound from their "last-Line-of-Defense".

The XAU/USD (range 4021.67-4082.58) snapped away from its 4000.00 (last-line-of-defense) and made a high of 4082.58 last Friday before closing 4052.00.

We now have a pivot between 4035.00 and 4135.00 whereby a break of either direction will show the directional bias for the next $150.

My preferred count is for a move higher towards 6000.00 (end 2026).

Finally, before the month ends this week, the Fed, BOE and the BOJ will announce their interest rates decisions on Thursday and Friday.

Let's see.

24 Jul 2026......Market Updates

The NASDAQ was hammered last night as it suffered the biggest losses, tumbling down 2.1% briefly below 25,000 for the first time since May.

Tesla and Alphabet earnings spooked investors while oil prices surged above $100 in the wake of the expanded attacks in Middle East.

The US is stretched to defend two straits and Trump cancelled the nuclear deal struck with Saudi, citing that Israel does not approve!

Looks like Trump needed Israel war resources to keep the Yemeni Houthis at bay and Israel probably agreed with a condition that Trump break off the nuclear deal with Saudi.

The S&P could not hold above 7,500 and closed lower at 7,499 (range 7,492-7,525).

The DXY and the US10Y both surged higher and closed @ 101.14 (range 101.02-101.18) and @ 4.66% (range 4.62%-4.66%) respectively.

US Treasuries collapse as US10Y are highest in 18 months (approaching 5%) and US30Y is highest since 2008, near 3%!

Rates traders are now pricing in 60 bp Fed rate hikes by April 2027.

Alphabet and Tesla results warnings finally woke up investors, who had been ignoring what analysts had confirmed.

Alphabet's free cash flow turned negative in Q1 for the first time in 2 years.

Tech is now relying on debt and share sales to bankroll AI spending.

This is likely to top $700 billion in 2026, as their cash fell short.

To add insult to injury, Trump announced new tariffs as the temporary tariffs of 10% will expire at midnight US time today.

It will be replaced by tariffs of 10%-12.5% on US top trading partners.

This will cover 60 of the top US trade partners and 99.4% of US imports.

Trump will now use Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 and hope that this will be permanent.

It will be interesting to see how the US is able to pull this off, both corporate and politically as it spend and spend.

Fire feeding on Fire will soon run out of oxygen and die.

The USD/JPY traded and closed with another new high 163.84 (range 162.99-163.99).

The XAU/USD plunged hard to close below 4100.00 @ 4050.00 (low 4039.69-4141.88) due to oil hitting $100.

Technically, the XAU/USD is expected to hold 4040.00 for a retest of 4200.00.

The price action has changed the sequence of moving higher towards 6000.00 (end 2026).

The USD/JPY is likely to hit 164.30 first and then 165.00 as the BOJ does not have the resolve to stop the bleeding.

The ECB left rates unchanged last night and today will see the pent-up release of S&P Global Services and Manufacturing PMI from Australia, Japan, the EU, UK and the US.

Let's see.

23 Jul 2026.....Market Updates

The US carried out the 11th consecutive night strikes on Iran as oil prices rose last night after Rubio said that Iran is not serious about reaching a deal, at a meeting of foreign ministers of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations in Philippines yesterday.

The Houthis has deploy drones and missiles to attack ships in the Sothern Red Sea as 9 ships turned back from crossing the Bab al--Mandab Strait.

US stocks sank last night after Alphabet announced $44.9 billion in additional capital spending (above consensus) while Tesla and IBM reported lower than expected earnings.

News of OpenAI AI models going rouge during testing, triggering unprecedented breach at startup and drove AI counters lower.

Meanwhile Trump approved a "double standard" deal that allow Saudi Arabia to enrich nuclear fuel for civilian use.

Saudi Arabia is notably not required to sign a standard agreement (additional Protocol) with the IAEA like the UAE did in 2009.

The deal is significant as it strategically benefits the US, as Saudi will be required to buy and use US nuclear technology.

The S&P drifted sideways with a downside bias and closed @ 7,499 (range 7,492-7525) last night.

The DXY managed to trade and close above 101.00 and closed @ 101.14 (range 101.02-101.18).

The US10Y closed a tad higher @ 4.66% (range 4.62$-4.66%).

The USD/JPY hit a high of 163.20, did a sharp plunge to 162.67 before closing @ 163.11 (no signs of BOJ).

The XAU/USD traded and closed above 4100.00 (recent low 3960.00), reverting its status as a safe-haven as the US/Iran war continues to push up oil prices and closed @ 4120.00 (range 4076.32-4166.27).

Technically, both the USD/JPY and the XAU/USD appears to be losing its upside momentum and need to be monitored for a near-term correction dip.

Hard to make any technical directional call today as we are near a correction inflection point after last night's price actions attempt to hit newer highs.

The ECB will be releasing its interest rates decision today and is likely to hold rates unchanged.

That will be followed by the US Jobless Claims and Intel earnings report.

Let's see.

22 Jul 2026.......Market Updates

What a night!

EVERYTHING WENT UP!

The DXY, US10Y, Crude, S&P, XAU/USD and XAG/USD all traded higher due to the US/Iran escalating into a full-blown war, despite mediators trying to get both parties to renegotiate over a new 10-days ceasefire.

Here are the headlines:

1.The Yemenis Houthis have officially declared the Red Sea blockade resulting in the turning away of shipping tankers

2. Trump announced that he will strike Iran's Pickax Mountain as he believes that is where the nuclear facilities are located

3. Pete Hegseth asked for an immediate infusion of $67 billion (current cost $37.5 billion) in a testimony to Congress

4. Trump slapped a 25% tariff on Brazil and 50% on Canada

5. Wall Street gained upside momentum as investors went risk-on ahead of the start of Tech earnings reports today.

The S&P closed higher @ 4083, (range 4044.66-4086.23).

The DXY and the US10Y both traded higher on risk aversion and inflation expectations closing @ 101.19 (range 100.87-101.20) and @ 4.62% (range 4.67%-4.63%) respectively.

It was "raining yen" last night as inflation expectations due to the widening US/Iran war meant that the Fed would hold rates longer and with no signs of BOJ, the USD/JPY broke and closed @ 163.20 (range 162.43-163.24), a new high since 1986!

Crude Oil Futures finally broke above 84.00 and closed 84.66 while the XAU/USD closed near 4100.00 @ 4082.00 (range 4003.50-4087.32).

The XAU/USD has switched its fundamentals, back to tracking inflation, as the "Houthis Red Sea blockade" will severely add on to the 20% Hormuz global oil supply shortage.

Technically, the XAU/USD is expected to test 4120.00 and retrace lower towards 4040.00.

The USD/JPY is expected to trade higher (despite BOJ) towards 163.80-164.00 with 163.00 as a support.

The tech earnings (Alphabet, Tesla and IBM) will start today, with Nvidia announcing its earnings after market close today.

There is no US data scheduled for release today and the ECB is scheduled to announce its interest rates decision (no change) tomorrow.

Let's see.

21 Jul 2026.......Market Updates

It was a "data-void" day but the newswires is filled with new catalysts :

1.US and Iran continues to intensify the war as 17 US military men died after 9 consecutive attacks on Iran

2. Iran's deadline to the US to stop strikes expired yesterday

3. Yemen's Houthis say they will impose naval blockade against Saudi Arabia, introducing a 3rd party into the middle east war

4. Trump's temporary global tariffs expire this Friday and look to invoke other legislative power to enable him to continue his "struck down" Liberalisation tariffs

5. Canada was imposed with a new 50% tariff on many Canadian goods yesterday.

6. Burnham was installed as the UK Prime Minister yesterday.

7. China left interest rates unchanged

The S&P traded lower and closed below 7,500 @ 7,443 (range 7,440-7,511), weighed down by the escalating middle east wars, anticipating higher oil prices.

Iran is expected to launch an all-out attack on the Gulf nations in retaliation to the US 9-days strikes after the Hormuz Straits was blocked in retaliation for shipping interference by both sides.

The DXY could not rally above 101.00 and closed @ 100.93 (range 100.65-101.03).

The US10Y traded sideways on an elevated range and closed @ 4.58% (range 4.34%-4.60%).

US gasoline prices hit above $4 again as the season for travelling starts.

Warsh is again finding his "wriggle room" restricted by the higher gasoline price after the US inflation flipped from 4.2% to 3.5% last week.

The global market has adapted to the closure of the Hormuz Straits as China imported less oil and oil exporters produced more.

However, should the Houthis take control over the Red Sea oil shipping lanes, additional oil supply chain will be blocked, and oil prices will continue to rally.

The XAU/USD is currently tracking expected rising US inflation and closed above 4000.00 @ 4008.00 (range 981.94-4041.17).

The fundamentals for the XAU/USD may have now changed to focus on expected rising inflation instead of higher USD due to higher oil prices!

Technically, the XAU/USD still need to break 4050.00 this week to see the resumption of the uptrend target of 6000.00 (end 2016) with baseline support at 3960.00.

The BOJ was out yesterday and 162.60 caps very well for the USD/JPY and closed @ 162.50 (range 162.20-162.60).

The focus today will be on news headlines from the Middle East wars and US ADP Employment Change.

This week is heavy with the scheduled release of Global Services and Manufacturing PMI and CPI from Japan, the EU, UK and the US.

Let's see.

20 JUK 2026.....Market Updates

Short of having a full-blown war between the US and Iran, both sides had decided to abandon the ceasefire, as the US continued its strikes (7th nights) on Iran's surveillance sites, military logistics infrastructures and underground storage.

To date, 6 US military men were killed.

Iran reciprocated with strikes on desalination plants and oil facilities in Kuwait for the 2 days.

Kuwait relied on 90% of its water from these desalination plants.

Iran's Supreme Leader says in a written statement that repeated US breeches now render Trump's signature "worthless".

The war has now transcended from Iran's possession of nuclear capability to the control of the Hormuz Straits.

It will be a matter of time before the Houthis will take control of the Red Sea shipping transits as the US has started targeting Iran's civilian infrastructures.

The S&P closed lower @ 7,457 (range 7,430 - 7,496) as the NASDAQ fell 1%.

Chip stocks fell as end-user demand for AI becoming more price sensitive, penalizing companies that are ramping up more AI spending (CAPEX).

The DXY could not trade above 101.00 and closed @ 100.75 (range 100.65-100.87).

The US10Y traded sideways with a slight downside bias and closed @ 4.54% (range 4.50%-4.55%).

US data released last Friday were mixed, with weaker data across its Industrial Production, Manufacturing Production and Capacity Utilization Rate.

Stronger data from the Michigan Consumer Expectation and lower I-Year and 5-Year inflation expectations could not distract the market away from an overpriced AI stocks as the ongoing US/Iran war seems to be spiraling out of control.

Wall Street closed before more escalations strikes between the US and Iran over the weekend was reported.

Hence, the Asian stock market may see lower on Monday's opening (Japan's Holiday).

There is no data scheduled for release on Monday, other than the Interest Rates Decision from China (may cut due to the recent negative data releases).

Technically, the WTI Crude Futures is showing toppish momentum cresting around $84 (current spot 82.47).

The XAU/USD is also showing possible bottoming again (now @ 3959.48) while the USD/JPY looks suspicious toppish @ 162.60 for a sharp dip down to 161.30.

This is a "time-decay" phenomenon that I had coined to illustrate that price actions remain flattish over a period of time and has potential to recoil sharply.

The focus today will be the China's Interest rates decision and further updates from the US/Iran war.

Do note that the global market has adapted to the closure of the Straits of Hormuz, but food prices will rise due to shortage of fertilizers from Iran.

Let's see.

17 JUL 2026.......Market Updates

The DXY tried to regain its upside momentum towards 100.80 last night as the US Jobless Claims registered fewer claims but US Retail Sales slowed from 1% to 0.2% MoM in June, limiting the dollar's advance.

Wall Street fell as shakeout in US semiconductor stocks fell , weighed down by AI valuations and US-Iran tensions.

Iran and the US escalated strikes on each other as the Houthis from Yemen joined in the fray, targetting the Red Sea and gulf nations oil facilities should the US hit Iran's power supplies.

However, WTI Crude seemed capped below $80.

Counterintuitive as it may seems, oil supply has been increased as Brazil, Guyana, the UAE and Canada had increased their oil production and projected a surplus into late 2026 against a growing demand of 1.2 million barrels a day!

However, this "oil surplus" will be at risk should the US strike Iran's power plants as the Yemenese Houthis will hit out at the gulf nation oil production facilities.

Trump added more mayhem when he announced a 25% tariff on Brazil effective 22 July 2026 and will announce a global tariff that will cover more than 80 countries.

This is to recoup what the Supreme Court had refunded, $81 billion collected tariffs, according to budget figures released on Monday.

While the war in Iran is expected to continue, Trump will be making his first primetime election address today, mainly on elections security.

Here are 5 things to watch:

1. Recycled allegations of a rigged election result in 2020

2. Alleged interference from China

3. The ongoing FBI investigations into the 2020 election in Georgia leading to Biden's election victory

4. Announce a new course to pass the SAVE America Act

5. What's next for Iran.

We have come to the end of the week and the only US data scheduled for release tonight are the US 1-Year /5-Year Inflation Expectations, Housing Starts and Industrial Production.

Technically, the XAU/USD has broken and closed below 4000.00 and is likely to gun for the 3600.00 ultimate support, as the US/Iran war escalates and US economic data showing resilience with a slowing inflation as oil supplies surprised with a surplus.

The USD/JPY is still trapped inside 162.00-162.50 pivot zone and only a decisive break of either ends, will see the next directional bias.

Let's see.

16 JUL 2026.......Market Updates

The US core PPI and PPI registered the largest drop in 14 months yesterday, consistent with the Core CPI and CPI released the day before.

However, US inflation risks are still tilted on the upside.

Warsh ended the final day of the Fed's Testimony pledging the Fed's independence despite refusing to answer if he has spoken to Trump since he stepped into office.

Warsh said that he speaks regularly with Scott Bessent.

The US Beige Book shows that economic activity expanded across most districts, while price pressures remained moderate and businesses flagged rising fuel-cost uncertainty as growth continues.

The DXY, US10Y slipped lower on the lower inflation print and closed @ 100.50 (range 100.35-101.03) and @ 4.55% (range 4.53% - 4.61%) respectively.

Blackrock and Morgan Stanley reported positive earnings, and the S&P closed a tad higher @ 7,572 (range 7,5226 - 7,580), even though SpaceX dropped below IPO price last night.

Meanwhile, Israel and Lebanon concluded its 2 days US-brokered talk on a positive note in Rome yesterday.

Both have agreed on a framework and will see a phased Israel withdrawal from occupied southern Lebanon.

Both sides left to draft out the framework deal and will meet again to officially sign off the final framework.

Meanwhile ships are not taking up US protection for any Hormuz Straits transit after the US and Iran war escalated.

The US launched new strikes and Iran retaliated by hitting Jordan, Bahrain and Kuwait US military installations.

The USD/JPY traded inside a range of 161.90 to 162.42, unable to respond "positively" to the lowered US inflation data, due to the "positive yield-carry" between the US and Japan.

The XAU/USD recovered sharply after the US PPI data was released, spiking from a low of 400.17 to 4081.00 before closing @ 4063.00 (still inside the pivot of 3980.00-4100.00)

Technically, the price action yesterday, indicate a bias to see a lower dollar against all currencies, including Gold and Silver.

Today's focus will be on the US Jobless Claims and the US Core Retail Sales and Retail Sales.

Let's see.

Big banks shine as soft CPI lifts bonds but ugly breadth exposes the market’s fault lines

https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/big-banks-shine-as-soft-cpi-lifts-bonds-but-ugly-breadth-exposes-the-markets-fault-lines-202607142246?utm_source=telegram&utm_medium=channel&utm_campaign=-1001510625232

15 JUL 2026......Market Updates

Here is what had happened last night :

1. US Inflation fell from 4.2% (May) to 3.5% (Jun) as gasoline prices eased.

2. Warsh testifies that short term US inflation has fallen, but he will ensure that inflation management will be his mission, even if he has to go against Trump

3.The US Banks Earnings reported positive earnings for all 5 (JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Citi, Bank of America and Wells Fargo)

4. Trump decided to scrap the 20% shipping fee after Gulf nations negotiated with him to replace it to direct foreign investments from gulf nations into the US.

5. A US brokered talk between Lebanon and Israel will be held in Rome today, to implement a framework deal

6. US and Iran continues to launch strikes at each other while keeping the door open for diplomacy.

The S&P traded flat even though IBM shares fell 25% and closed @ 7,543 (range 7,512 - 7,557).

The US10Y and the DXY traded lower on the surprised lower US CPI print and closed @ 4.56% (range 4.51%-4.63%) and @ 100.94 (range 100.61 - 101.24) respectively.

Though the news were generally positive on three fronts (US CPI, Warsh Testimony and US/Iran war), the S&P, DXY and the US10Y did not make any decisive directional changes.

The XAU/USD spiked up from a low of 3983.29 to a high of 4107.04 before closing @ 4053.00.

The USD/JPY fell from 162.47 to a low of 161.60 before closing @ 162.22.

Technically, all counters were still trading inside Monday's range.

Will not be able to offer any directional guidance today as the price actions have locked themselves into a pivot zone for now.

Will allow the market to unfold over the next 2 days before assessing the next short term directional bias.

The focus today will still be on Warsh second and final day at his Testimony to the Senate Committee.

The US Core PPI and PPI , earnings report from Blackrock and Morgan Stanley and the US Beige Book will be the highlights for today.

Let's see.