Compound Wealth

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The S&P 500 is down just 1.3% from its peak. Software stocks are down 33.2%.

That’s not a small gap — that’s a 25x difference in drawdown, measured at the same point in time (April 13, 2026).

The chart above shows how this pattern has played out historically too. Software has repeatedly experienced much deeper drawdowns than the broader index.

Why? Because the S&P 500 spreads exposure across hundreds of companies and multiple sectors. No single industry can drag the whole thing down.

That’s diversification doing its job — though it’s worth noting it doesn’t guarantee profits or protect fully against losses.

Most people spend their whole working life building wealth.

Then retire with no plan for what happens when markets drop at the wrong time.

Sequence risk is one of the biggest threats to a retirement portfolio and almost nobody talks about it.

It’s not about your total return.

It’s about when the losses hit.

Withdraw from a portfolio during a downturn and you lock in losses that compound in the wrong direction.

The portfolio never fully recovers.

Two people can retire with the same savings.

One retires before a crash. One after.

Completely different outcomes same number, different timing.

The answer isn’t to avoid markets.

It’s to have a structure that protects you from having to sell at the wrong time.

Does your retirement plan account for sequence risk?

What would you choose in retirement more money or more certainty?

Missing One Day Can Wreck a Year: The market’s strongest days often arrive after periods of fear and volatility. This chart shows how emotional, short-term decisions like panic selling can cause lasting damage to long-term performance.

A Look at the Data: Through March 27, 2026, the S&P 500 has gained 10.0% year-to-date. But when you remove April 9th, this year’s best day so far, returns fall off a cliff, dropping to 0.4% missing best day. One missed day can erase a meaningful chunk of progress, showing how dangerous it is to try and time the market.

Investment Implications: Missing just one large up day in any given year can have a large impact on returns.

This chart illustrates how the S&P 500 has historically performed over the following year after 2-day oil price surges of 20% or more, dating back to 1986.

A Look at the Data: There have been 7 unique, historical instances (outside of the March 6, 2026 instance) of oil surging 20% or more over a 2-day period (since 1986). In 6 of 7 cases, the S&P 500 was higher one year later. The S&P 500 has generated a -2.36% return since the March 6, 2026 instance.

Investment Implications: While past performance is not indicative of future results, the chart shows that the S&P 500 has historically tended to show resilience the year following 2-day oil surges over more than 20%.

The best market days don’t send you a calendar invite. 📅
Miss them, and your returns can shrink fast or even go negative. Stay the course, stay invested, and let compounding do the work.

Who’s topping the KiwiSaver charts in 2025? We’ve crunched the mid-year numbers to reveal the best performing funds and providers so far and what’s driving their success.

📈 Find out if your KiwiSaver is a winner - https://www.compoundwealth.co.nz/blog/best-performing-kiwisaver-funds-2025-midyear-update

Not all KiwiSaver funds are created equal.

At Compound Wealth, we don’t just go with gut feel, we use independent research from Morningstar to build portfolios that are diversified, cost-efficient, and designed for long-term results.

It’s how we cut through noise and keep your investments aligned with your goals.

🔗 Read how it works in our blog https://www.compoundwealth.co.nz/blog/how-we-use-independent-morningstar-research-to-build-better-portfolios