03/09/2021
Dollar and Dow Wound Up Before NFPs and Holiday Drain
Just how steadfast are the markets? We have witnessed extraordinarily reserved conditions for the financial system this week as structural quiet converges on the height of seasonal doldrums. Yet, that curb on participation can do more to amplify volatility than suppress it when passing through critical event risk – and that is exactly what we are facing into this final trading session of the week…and season. US nonfarm payrolls (NFPs) for August are due at 12:30 GMT before the US open, and the market’s fixation on the Fed’s intended time table for a taper has not abated alongside volume. Thin markets, extremely tight trading ranges and key event risk is a potent combination that active traders and passive investors alike should monitor. With the Dow as a foundational blue-chip risk measure extending its extremely controlled (now 8 day) range and volatility, it will be a good measure of sudden outburst.