Stock Market Guide

Report 21 Dec 2024; Bajaj Housing Finance; CMP: INR 127; Target: INR 162; Upside: 28%; Recommendation: Buy; Time Horizon: 1 Year

KMC Speciality Hospitals Ltd; CMP: INR 80; Target: INR 112; Upside: 40%; Recommendation: Buy; Time Horizon: 1 Year

A man was traveling in a boat with his monkey. Among the other passengers was a philosopher. The monkey, unfamiliar with boat rides, was agitated and restless, moving around uncontrollably, disturbing everyone. The boatman grew anxious, fearing that the chaos among the passengers might cause the boat to capsize. The man, distressed by his monkey’s behaviour, couldn’t find a way to calm it.

Observing this, the philosopher decided to step in and said, "If you allow me, I can quiet the monkey like a house cat."

Desperate for a solution, the man agreed. With the help of two passengers, the philosopher picked up the monkey and tossed it into the river. The monkey, panicked, started swimming frantically to survive. After a short while, the philosopher pulled the exhausted monkey back into the boat. The once-agitated monkey now quietly retreated to a corner, behaving calmly.

Astonished by the transformation, the man asked, "It was jumping around before, but now it’s sitting as still as a pet cat. Why?"

The philosopher replied, "No one understands another's misfortune until they experience hardship themselves. By throwing the monkey into the water, it learned to appreciate the safety of the boat."

Happy Weekend!

*How RBI Controls Inflation and the impact of Cuts ?* 🏦

RBI has these 4 powerful tools to control inflation and drive growth.

📌CRR
📌Repo Rate
📌Reverse Repo Rate
📌SLR

Here’s how they work (in simple terms): 👇

1) Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) 🏦
Banks must keep a % of deposits with the central bank.

🔼 Higher CRR → Less for banks to lend → Inflation controlled

🔽 Lower CRR → More for banks to lend → Growth encouraged

Small changes = Big impact!

2) Repo Rate 💰

The rate at which the RBI lends to commercial banks.

🔼 Higher Repo Rate → Reduces liquidity → Inflation down
🔽 Lower Repo Rate → Boosts liquidity → Growth up

Central banks adjust this to control the money supply!

3) Reverse Repo Rate 🔄
The rate at which the RBI borrows from commercial banks.

🔼 Higher Reverse Repo → Banks park funds → Liquidity down, inflation controlled

🔽 Lower Reverse Repo → Banks lend more → Liquidity up, growth boosted

It’s a balancing act!

4) Statutory Liquidity Ratio (SLR) 📈
Banks must invest a % of deposits in govt. securities.

🔼 Higher SLR → Less for lending → Inflation controlled

🔽 Lower SLR → More for lending → Growth boosted

It’s about steering the economy!

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Paradeep Phosphates; Buy; CMP: INR 107; Target: INR 150; Upside: 40%; Recommendation: Buy; Time Horizon: 1 Year

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Why Indian stock market is going down ?

1. 70% of smallcaps and Midcaps are still expensive
2. Reliance is down roughly 20% after muted numbers & overall Q-2 earnings are weaker than expected.
3. Auto companies are guiding for weaker demands in future .
4. IPO market ( HYundai + Waree + Swiggy + FPOs ) took away approx Rs. 45000 crores .
5. FIIs selling big time > 1 Lacs cr in last 41 days
6. ASM/ GSM Nonsense by regulator all the time, value of collateral is going down.
7. Post tax return from Indian market is going down due to higher STT and taxation ( Latest budget )
8. Spike in Dollar index & US bond yields
9 . RBI is extremely slow & looks like they are sleeping .
10. Local investors are also going slow , after recent losses .
11. China is cheap & Hence some FIIs are allocating fresh money to China more Vs India .
12. INR at all time low and Economy is clearly slowing done
13. Lot size revision and weekly expiry game is over , many short term guys are selling deliveries also , bcoz they have better options in other markets , with lower taxation .

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