Indraanil Guha

अँधेरा हटेगा! सूरज निकलेगा! कमल खिलेगा!

RETIREMENT PLANNING IS A SERIOUS MATHEMATICAL EXERCISE

And it needs to be freed from the clutches of types who think you need 40 cr to retire in India and/or 70 lakh CTC is middle to lower-middle class in today’s India.

asked on her podcast - I’m almost 40 and I’ve an expense of around 2 lakhs a month. How much would I need to have in assets by the time I’m 60?

's reply - 40 crores!

This response is NOT just so so so misleading, it also has absolutely NO basis in mathematics!

So here’s what the real numbers would look like if someone actually cares to run the numbers:

Assuming a life expectancy of 90, inflation of 6% pa, and investment corpus growing at 12% pa, you need 11.39 cr (NOT 40 cr) by the time you turn 60 to be able to generate today’s equivalent of 2 lakhs per month thru your retirement (and you would have still NOT dipped into your principal)!

If you want to make it even more conservative, then with a return of 12% pa up to retirement and FD-like returns of 7% pa thereafter, you still need no more than 22.6 cr!

Throw in taxes, and still the required corpus can’t go beyond 25 cr!

How could come up a figure of 40 cr totally defeats me!

You can refer to my excel-based retirement calculator to verify these numbers and check your own FIRE number (you would need to enable excel macros to use this retirement calculator)

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/14uK_BXEeZQezGFg1kLluN4bm3aq37cmK/edit?rtpof=true&sd=true

WAR IMPACT ON MARKETS: HOW ALPHASIP® 2.0 USED MOVE INDEX TO WIN | INDRAANIL GUHA (ENGLISH)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aoZjgnqhOiI

The MOVE Index, which represents the volatility in the US government bond market, and the Nifty 50 index here in India have historically had a very tight but inverse relationship with each other.

The reason I am highlighting this inverse relationship, probably for the zillionth time, is because for us, this is not merely a theory. Instead, this is actionable market intelligence.

This is market intelligence that we actively leveraged during the ongoing conflict in the Middle East to switch the investment portfolios of our clients who have invested in our AlphaSIP® 2.0 strategy.

We moved out of equity markets around the middle of March, which is when the MOVE Index spiked significantly, and then switched the investment portfolios back into equity markets towards the end of March, when the MOVE Index started to trend decisively downward.

This played a pivotal role in helping us protect our clients’ portfolios from the adverse impact of the last leg of this brutal drawdown in equity markets, which has been ongoing since the outbreak of the conflict in the Middle East.

In this video, I have vividly explained how the magic of the AlphaSIP® 2.0 strategy played out step by step, just as this brutal drawdown in equity markets unfolded over the last month or so since the outbreak of the conflict in the Middle East.

Therefore, please watch this video till the very end without skipping—especially if you are considering investing in the AlphaSIP® 2.0 strategy.

If you are planning to invest in the AlphaSIP® 2.0 strategy, there is both good news and bad news.

The good news is that the deadline for investing in the AlphaSIP® 2.0 strategy has been extended.

However, the bad news is that the new deadline is 3rd April 2026, which is today.

If you have been considering investing in the AlphaSIP® 2.0 strategy, this is an opportunity to make the most of the public holiday on 3rd April 2026 to complete all the required formalities before the deadline ends.

War Impact on Markets: How AlphaSIP® 2.0 Used MOVE Index to Win | Indraanil Guha English WAR IMPACT ON MARKETS: HOW ALPHASIP® 2.0 USED MOVE INDEX TO WIN | INDRAANIL GUHA (ENGLISH)The MOVE Index, which represents the volatility in the US governmen...

ALPHASIP® 2.0 (PART 2): UNDERSTANDING ULIP COSTS & CHARGES | INDRAANIL GUHA ENGLISH
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oGW9iP41JV4

We execute our flagship AlphaSIP® 2.0 investment strategy using an instrument called ULIPs, which stands for Unit Linked Insurance Plans. This is because ULIPs are uniquely tax-efficient for executing investment strategies where the investment corpus needs to be switched between funds at a relatively high frequency.
However, many of our customers tend to get quite concerned and alarmed the moment they learn that we use ULIPs to execute our AlphaSIP® 2.0 strategy.

This concern is understandable. ULIPs have historically carried a very poor reputation due to the extremely high charges imposed by many traditional ULIP providers. As a result, a large number of investors who invested in such traditional ULIP plans have often ended up with returns that can hardly be considered satisfactory.
And that is precisely why, I decided to create this dedicated video—to address these concerns for both our existing and prospective customers.

In this video, I will first explain why we use ULIPs to execute the AlphaSIP® 2.0 strategy, despite their past reputation.
Second, I will explain whether and how the ULIP schemes we use for executing the AlphaSIP® 2.0 strategy are different—and potentially more cost-efficient—compared to traditional ULIP plans.
Finally, I will transparently provide a detailed breakdown of all the costs and charges applicable to the ULIP plans we use while executing the AlphaSIP® 2.0 strategy. I will also explain the extent to which these charges cumulatively impact the returns generated by the monthly rebalancing logic of the AlphaSIP® 2.0 strategy.
If you are considering investing in our AlphaSIP® 2.0 strategy, then this video is a must-watch.

I can assure you that you will not find such a transparent and clear breakdown of all the costs and charges associated with a ULIP plan anywhere else in the insurance industry. So please make sure to watch this video till the very end without skipping.

AlphaSIP® 2.0 (Part 2): Understanding ULIP Costs & Charges | Indraanil Guha English ALPHASIP® 2.0 (PART 2): UNDERSTANDING ULIP COSTS & CHARGES | INDRAANIL GUHA ENGLISHWe execute our flagship AlphaSIP® 2.0 investment strategy using an instrum...

DIDN’T I TELL YOU THIS WAR IS DRAWING TOWARDS AN END?

This is what I wrote about a week back… as I had predicted then (and is starting to play out now), this war in the Middle-East is drawing towards an end!

To summarize what I had written back then, the determinant of when this war would come to an end is NOT whether and when Iran is militarily defeated, NOT how many Shaheed drones Iran is still left with, NOT even how high oil prices will go!

The real decider was always going to be THE BOND MARKET, or to be more specific, the extent of VOLATILITY IN THE BOND MARKET – something which can actually be tracked using this index called the MOVE INDEX.

A MOVE Index reading of 100+ is considered to be representative of very high volatility… a reading of 120+ means dangerously high volatility!

The last time things went out of hand was on 2-Apr-2025, which is when President Trump unveiled his sweeping tariffs on almost every trading partner of US.

This led to an instant spike in volatility in the bond market and the MOVE Index soared to a level of 140 within a matter of days!

And guess what – Trump immediately TACOed!

Within just 7 days of unveiling the tariffs, he had to beat a hasty retreat on 9-Apr-2025, which is when he announced he would be postponing the implementation of tariffs by 90 days!

That’s what it took for the bond market to back off from its revolt and for the MOVE Index to finally retreat back below 100!

And that’s why I had predicted little over a week back (when the MOVE Index came perilously close to 100, closing at 95 on 12-Mar-2026) that the timelines of this war will be ultimately decided by when the MOVE Index crosses 100, and eventually 120!

The MOVE Index finally did go past the first threshold of 100 on Friday (20-Mar-2026), closing the day at 108.84!

And that’s it! Looks like it was enough for Trump to start pulling off yet another TACO

After threatening to bomb Iran’s power installations if Iran fails to reopen the Straits of Hormuz within 48 hours, Trump has now unilaterally announced a 5-day pause in airstrikes!

Make no mistakes, this war is drawing towards an end!

I have explained this thesis in greater details in this recent video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D2dhqk0uyZo&t=2s

ALPHASIP® 2.0: THIS AI STRATEGY PROTECTS YOU IN MARKET CRASHES + TAX-FREE RETURNS! | INDRAANIL GUHA
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NQtYDyoOHjE

We have all learned to accept that equity investments are subject to market risks. But, my dear friends, what if I told you that with the advent of AI and other quantitative methods, it is now possible to invest in a way that allows you to participate in the upside of equity markets during periods of strong momentum — while at the same time protecting your portfolio, to a very large extent, during phases of market turbulence?

And as if that were not compelling enough, what if I told you that the maturity proceeds of such a strategy could be completely tax-free?

Most experts would argue that outcomes like these are almost impossible to achieve. We, of course, beg to differ, which is why I would request you to bear with me as I walk you through an investment strategy that has the potential to deliver exactly this.

I proudly present to you our flagship investment strategy — AlphaSIP 2.0!

AlphaSIP® 2.0: This AI Strategy Protects You in Market Crashes + Tax-Free Returns! | Indraanil Guha ALPHASIP® 2.0: THIS AI STRATEGY PROTECTS YOU IN MARKET CRASHES + TAX-FREE RETURNS! | INDRAANIL GUHAWe have all learned to accept that equity investments are ...

THE WAR IN THE MIDDLE-EAST IS DRAWING TOWARDS AN END!

And no, it’s NOT because Iran has been militarily defeated, or that Iran on its part is close to running out of Shaheed drones.

It’s because the bond market will soon force the hands of President Trump to end this war! Let me explain…

Notwithstanding the might of the greatest military apparatus the world has ever seen, one thing that every US President still fears is a REVOLT BY THE BOND MARKET!

And when the bond market revolts, it expresses itself by way of volatility of the bond market shooting up.

And there’s an index that tracks volatility of the US government bond market… it’s called the MOVE Index.

The last time the bond market revolted was on 2-Apr-2025, which is when President Trump unveiled his sweeping tariffs on almost every trading partner of US.

This is something that rattled the US government bond market, and the MOVE index shot up from under 100 to 140 within a matter of days.

A MOVE Index reading of 100+ is considered to be representative of very high volatility… a reading of 120+ means dangerously high volatility!

So what happened after that that?

Well, the President was forced to immediately back down!

Within just 7 days of unveiling the tariffs, the President had to beat a hasty retreat on 9-Apr-2025, which is when he had to announce he would be postponing the implementation of tariffs by 90 days!

That’s what it took for the bond market to back off from its revolt and for the MOVE Index to finally retreat back below 100.

BTW, the MOVE Index and stock market have a very tight but inverse relationship (refer to the chart illustrating the historical trend of the MOVE Index v/s NIFTY)

And that’s why, as the MOVE Index retreated, stocks immediately took off!

But guess what - we are at the cusp of a re-run of the same movie all over again!

The extended closure of the Straits of Hormuz has sent oil price north of $100/barrel, in turn driving up inflation expectations around the world.

And rising inflation expectations, as they always do, have sent bond yields spiraling…

US 10-year yields are up from 3.97% before the start of the war to 4.28% currently… that’s a jump of more than 30 bps in just two weeks!

And such a sharp spike in yields is now helping push up the MOVE Index, which is up from a level of just 73 before the start of the war to its current level of 95!

And rest be assured, if the MOVE Index continues to pick momentum (which I suspect it will) and continues its climb to 100+, and eventually 120+, the President will be once again forced to back down, and figure out a way to end this war without any further ado.

I suspect that will take the shape of form of the President abruptly and unilaterally proclaiming victory and announcing the withdrawal of US forces and military assets from the region one fine morning (or in the middle of the night) on Truth Social!

The coming days are going to be interesting!

BTW, the President backing off would almost certainly mean “achhe din” once again for stocks!

I have explained this thesis in greater details in this recent video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D2dhqk0uyZo