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🏦 RBI MPC | June 2026 — Key Highlights

📌 Repo Rate: UNCHANGED at 5.25%
The MPC voted unanimously to hold rates steady — no surprise there, but the reasoning matters.

📌 Stance: NEUTRAL (retained)
Governor Sanjay Malhotra cited rising risks from the prolonged West Asia conflict, elevated energy prices, supply-chain disruptions, and weather-related uncertainties as reasons for the pause.

📌 GDP Forecast for FY27: 6.6%
Quarterly breakdown: Q1 at 6.6%, Q2 at 6.3%, Q3 at 6.5%, and Q4 at 6.8%. Private consumption remains resilient and fixed investment continues to show momentum despite rising costs.

📌 Inflation Forecast (CPI): 5.1% for FY27
Quarterly projections: Q1 at 4.2%, Q2 at 5.1%, Q3 at 5.9%, and Q4 at 5.4% — a notable uptick expected in the second half of the year.

📌 Key Risk: Monsoon & West Asia
The RBI flagged monsoon as a major domestic risk, and warned that the longer the West Asia conflict persists, the greater its impact on inflation and growth prospects

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Bottom line: RBI hits pause — watching global fires 🔥 before making the next move. Rate cut hopes pushed further out.

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