Real Estate Foresight

Bank of Canada Keeps Rate on Hold at 2.25%

The Bank of Canada held its policy interest rate at 2.25% in its September 2, 2026 decision, citing persistent inflation risks, ongoing Middle East conflict, and trade uncertainty.

Decision details
Overnight rate target: 2.25% (unchanged)

Bank Rate: 2.50%

Deposit Rate: 2.20%
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This was the same level as in July 2026, with no change since the previous decision

Why Calgary Just Banned 300,000 Multiplexes Overnight Across Canada, a historic battle over the future of the single-fami...

All Over The World Long-Term Government Bond Yields Rise: This Is NOT Good

It's impact on Canadian Mortgages is muted as we use Short-term Government Bonds to price our Mortgages

But the main theme of higher debt cost is inescapable

If it keeps going the damage spreads

Soon, Americans who price there 25 & 30 year mortgages from Long Bonds will wake up to Mortgage Rates over 7%

Their housing market will slow further & President Trump will scream for lower rates

But even a US President can't fix Bond Yields without Quantitative Easing

In Canada the effect seeps through to our short-term Bond Yields eventually moving up Fixed Mortgage rates

As of this morning our 5 - Yr Bond Yield has risen 4.5% in the last 7 days

No Buenos

At this pace in a few weeks all Fixed Mortgage Rates will start with a 4%

And some Fixed Rates will be Mid 4%

Some Borrowers renewing Rental Properties will have to pay 4.39% to 4.69% just for a 3 - Yr Fixed

Perhaps the most impactful outcome will be if a 3 - Yr Fixed slips over 5%

What about Variable Rates?

They will become MORE popular

At an average of 55 BPS less than Fixed Rates Variable has continued to surge in popularity

Imagine an 80 or 100 BPS difference

What if:

3 - Yr Fixed 4.59%
5 - Yr Variable 3.60%

Variable use goes to 75% from today's 40%

Will that happen?

It's about a 50/50 chance

BTW

This has happened BEFORE

In 2022 Mortgage Borrowers piled into Variable Mortgages as Fixed Rates climbed steadily in late 2021 & early 2022

Then the Bank Of Canada Raised Rates from 0.25% to 4.25% by the end of 2022

History doesn't repeat

But it rhymes

-Ron

Call Butler Mortgage TODAY for more information and insight into this ever-changing market! We are here to help!
1-877-568-9255

Yeap it is all Americans and Trump fault that some cities running out of tax revenues and people cannot afford their taxes. Imagine what will happen after retaliatory tariffs and all this drama... Oh boy.. keep printing money and taxing regular people - the sky is a limit..

‘It’s tragic, it’s scary’: Unpaid property taxes climb to $38 million in Cambridge.

Unpaid property taxes and related fees in Cambridge have ballooned to $38 million, nearly doubling over the past five years and drawing concern from a city councillor over mounting financial pressure.

The issue was brought to light following a motion by Coun. Helen Shwery last month, who pushed for a closer look at the tax arrears. According to a staff report, the total amount owed now stretches across more than 6,000 properties in the city.

“We haven’t collected 38 million. That’s a lot of money,” Shwery said. “So it is, it’s tragic, it’s scary.”

How much of that total is owed by residential homeowners versus local businesses is unknown.

“We are not able to provide a breakdown between residential and non-residential tax arrears,” city staff said, in part, in a statement.

Shwery said it’s because current software doesn’t have the ability to get that breakdown. She said the city is currently upgrading its systems so that data will be available by the next budget cycle.

“And that’s also very important because say for example the bulk of it is business,” Shwery said. “What are we doing to help our businesses? Why are the businesses struggling?”

Julie Simmons, an associate professor of political science at the University of Guelph, said that households and businesses are feeling a severe financial squeeze due to current economic conditions.

“And there also might be families or businesses that are negatively affected by the tariff situation with the United States,” she said.

Mayor Jan Liggett echoed that in a statement to CTV News:

“Tariffs that in the end affect employment, rising interest rates in recent years, inflationary pressures, and the increasing cost of everyday necessities have made it more difficult for many households and businesses to balance their finances.”

If municipal revenue continues to face shortfalls, Simmons warned that non-essential city services could eventually find themselves vulnerable during budget talks.

“It could be things like landscaping priorities, public parks, community centre infrastructure, [and] library services. Which would be, I think, the most vulnerable, because those are not essential things for the city to function,” she said.

The prospect of potential budget impacts has Shwery weary about the city’s spending.

“If we don’t have so much money, maybe we need to be more restrained on our wants,” Shwery said. “Our needs can always be covered because we do collect a lot of revenue and a lot of taxes.”

The City of Cambridge notes that under provincial rules, properties falling far behind on payments can eventually face collection actions. In a statement, the city outlined:

“Under the Municipal Act, 2001, the City may initiate tax registration proceedings when property taxes remain unpaid for at least two years prior to the current year. This process begins with the registration of a Tax Arrears Certificate against the property... [providing] the City with the authority to sell the property if all outstanding taxes, penalties, interest, and legal costs incurred by the City are not paid within one year of registration.”

The report goes before Cambridge City Council for information on Tuesday.

Meantime, the city’s mayor urges anyone struggling to pay to contact the municipal tax department to discuss payment options."

Nearly 8 out of 10 homes in Toronto are selling below asking — and that’s more normal than you think.

According to data from real estate listing website HouseSigma, 78.1 per cent of homes sold below their final asking price in July, while just 18.7 per cent sold above it. The median sale came in at 2.8 per cent, or $23,000 below list price. Among only those properties that sold below asking, the median discount was $30,000 or 3.7 per cent.

It's a far cry from February 2022, when 86.1 per cent of Toronto area homes sold above their asking price, but according to HouseSigma July's data is actually more in line with historical trends.

Condos were the most likely major housing type to sell below asking in July at 83 per cent, according to HouseSigma. About 78 per cent of detached homes sold below asking, compared with 72.6 per cent of attached homes which include semi-detached houses and townhomes.

The gap becomes particularly pronounced at the top of the market. Among homes priced at $2 million or more, 86.4 per cent sold below asking and the median sale price was 5.55 per cent below list price — the largest discount at any price bracket.

For now, sellers are navigating a market in which buyers are showing up but are considerably more selective. Sammy Kohn, a Toronto realtor with HouseSigma, said activity has picked up in certain pockets but that buyers are negotiating hard and acting only when the price feels right.

Kohn recently represented the sellers of a 1,280-square-foot, two-bedroom-plus-den condo in Toronto's Trinity Bellwoods neighbourhood. Listed for $1.098 million in May, the property drew just three or four showings in its first several days.

The sellers cut the price to $995,000 less than a week later, in an effort to capture buyers searching below the $1-million mark. Kohn said activity and inquiries picked up dramatically and the condo sold several days later for $985,000.

July home sales down 5.3% from last year, but market becoming more balanced: CREA.

The Canadian Real Estate Association says home sales in July were down compared with a year ago, but edged slightly higher month-over-month.

The organization said Tuesday home sales last month totalled 43,578, down 5.3 per cent from the previous year.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, activity was up 0.5 per cent compared with June this year.

"At the national level, July's housing data was a carbon copy of the June numbers, with home sales edging up a little further, listings down, and prices remaining stable," CREA senior economist Shaun Cathcart said in a news release.

"The more interesting story over the last few months has been below the surface of the headline national numbers, where markets across the country are generally moving back towards balance."

CREA said that Saskatchewan, New Brunswick, and Newfoundland and Labrador are still borderline sellers' markets, but that other provinces have seen inventory converging toward long-term averages in recent months.

"Notably, even Ontario's months of inventory measure was only about a half standard deviation above average in July after having been in a buyers' market condition for the first four months of 2026," the report said.

The national average sale price of a home sold in July was $674,819, up 0.2 per cent on a year-over-year basis.

CREA's home price index, which aims to represent the sale of typical homes, edged 0.1 per cent higher month-over-month. The index was down 3.3 per cent on a year-over-year basis.

Regionally, prices fell on a year-over-year basis in Ontario and B.C., while all other regions saw gains.

CREA says new listings in July were down 1.6 per cent month-over-month, marking the third consecutive drop.

There were 205,388 properties listed for sale across Canada at the end of July, up 0.6 per cent from the previous year and just 1.5 per cent higher than the long-term average.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Aug. 18, 2026.

Daniel Johnson, The Canadian Press