Real Estate Foresight

Stagflation talk returns to rattle markets as oil rebounds to $100.

Renewed hostilities in the Gulf have revived stagflation talk, dimming hopes the interim deal between the U.S. and Iran had come in time for the world economy to avoid elevated inflation alongside stagnant economic growth.
Instead, oil prices are back at $100, European gas prices ‌are set for their biggest monthly jump since March and government borrowing costs are at multi-year highs on inflation angst as tensions escalate once more.

Trade frictions are adding ‌to the uncertainty facing consumers, businesses and investors. The U.S. on Friday imposed new tariffs of 10% and 12.5% on goods from 60 trading partners, including the European Union and China, likely raising prices further.

"Stagflation risk has been very ​much there for each economy since March, in different ways," said Alessia Berardi, head of global macroeconomics, Amundi Investment Institute.

The latest broadening of the conflict, "increases the risk of stagflation for sure," she added.

How does stagflation impacts the real estate? One may ask.

"In summary: Stagflation generally dampens real estate demand and can erode real property values, but well‑positioned income properties and constrained supply markets can offer relative resilience. The net effect depends on local income growth, supply dynamics, and how quickly inflation and interest rates evolve."

OTTAWA — Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. says it now sees home sales and prices declining this year, a downgrade from its earlier forecast, before the market returns to modest growth next year and in 2028.

CMHC says a number of factors, including economic uncertainty, slower population growth and borrowing costs, are expected to weigh on activity in the housing market.

The agency's baseline forecast now expects 457,200 home sales in 2026 with an average home price of $675,200, down from 470,314 homes sold in 2025 with an average price of $679,543.

The latest forecast also marks a decrease from its previous outlook in February, when it expected sales and prices to rise compared with last year.

CMHC says uncertainty remains high as geopolitical tensions are expected to temporarily raise inflation and Canada-U.S. trade uncertainty continues to affect investment and hiring decisions.

Housing starts are expected to reach 241,400 in 2026, down from 259,028 in 2025, with builders facing weak demand, elevated inventories and high construction costs.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published July 22, 2026.

The Canadian Press

The OTHER Half of Canada Will See Price Drops Soon! Breaking Real Estate News... as BC and Ontario talk about when the ...

Canada’s housing market gained momentum in the second quarter of the year, with activity picking up in May and June, according to Royal LePage’s latest housing survey.

The survey, which provides realtor insights on 65 of the nation’s largest real estate markets, said the country’s aggregate home price fell 1.4 per cent from the same quarter a year ago to $814,900. Quarter over quarter, prices edged up 0.2 per cent.

“Several regions are now seeing that uptick in momentum carry into summer, as buyers who held back earlier in the year re-enter the market,” said Phil Soper, chief executive of Royal LePage.
The recovery was uneven across the country however. The Greater Toronto Area (GTA) recorded a 4.6 per cent year over year decline in aggregate home prices in the quarter, while in Greater Vancouver prices dropped 4.5 per cent.
Quebec City remained one of the county’s strongest markets, with prices rising 6.1 per cent from a year earlier, though they fell two per cent from the January to March prices –– the region’s first quarterly decline in over three years.
Meanwhile, GTA prices rose 0.9 per cent on a quarterly basis.
“While the region (GTA) remains in a buyers’ market, momentum began shifting toward balanced conditions in the second quarter, in line with our expectations for a gradual recovery,” Shawn Zigelstein, broker and leader of Team Zold at Royal LePage Signature Realty, said in a press release. “That said, economic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions continue to weigh on consumer confidence, keeping many would-be buyers on the sidelines.”
“Meanwhile, sellers are listing only when they absolutely have to, which is contributing to shrinking supply levels,” he said.

“Looking ahead, Royal LePage forecasts the aggregate home price will increase two per cent in the fourth quarter of 2026 compared to a year earlier. However, it expects the GTA to remain an outlier with prices forecast to decline two per cent year over year by the end of 2026.
Vancouver’s prices are expected to fall 3.5 per cent over the same period.”

Excerpt From
“Canada’s housing market gains momentum in second quarter, says Royal LePage”
Shantaé Campbell
Financial Post

Almost half of Ontario condo units are worth less than $500,000 as prices plunge, MPAC reports Some parts of Southern Ontario have seen condo prices fall as much as 35 per cent since 2022

Canadian average asking rents actually dropped by 4.7% year-over-year in May 2026 to an average of $2,029, according to the latest data from Rentals.ca. This represents the 20th consecutive month of annual rental price declines across Canada.Key Market TrendsPeak Decline Context: National asking rents are down 7.8% from the record peak of $2,202 reached in May 2024.Monthly Stagnation: On a month-over-month basis, rents only ticked up by 0.1% from April, missing the historical five-year seasonal average increase of 1.3% for the spring-to-summer transition.Driving Factors: Economic cooling, slowed population growth, and record-high apartment completions have combined to inject supply and soften landlord leverage.Breakdown by Unit TypeCondominium Apartments: Saw the sharpest decline, dropping 6.8% year-over-year to an average of $2,076.House & Townhouse Rentals: Decreased by 7.7%, settling at an average of $2,004.Purpose-Built Apartments: Slipped more modestly by 3.4% to an average of $2,031.

“The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) handed out more than $31 million in bonuses last year to 79 executives and more than three-quarters of its total workforce, according to government information reviewed by the Canadian Taxpayers Federation (CTF).
The data comes in response to a question asked in the House of Commons in April by Andrew Scheer, Conservative Member of Parliament for Regina–Qu’Appelle.
Scheer had asked for information on bonuses awarded at each Crown corporation for the 2025-26 fiscal year, broken down by percentage of officials both at and below the executive level who received bonuses, and their amounts.
Some organizations, such as the Canada Council for the Arts and CBC/Radio-Canada, said they do not award bonuses, while others said the information was not yet available.
However, the CMHC said it had awarded $31,720,451 in bonuses for the year to 79 people at or above the executive level, and 2,371 people below that level.
The executives received a total of $3,545,057, for an average of almost $45,000 each, while those below the executive level took home $28,175,394, an average of almost $12,000 per person.”

“The Crown corporation also noted that the lower echelon of those receiving bonuses constituted 77.76 per cent of the employees at that level. It did not say what percentage of executives received bonuses, citing the Privacy Act and noting: “Certain information which could be used to identify a small number of individuals has been withheld on the grounds that the information constitutes personal information.”
However, CMHC previously disclosed that about 99 per cent of its executives took a bonus in 2024-25.”