Dehal Investment Partners of Raymond James Ltd.

Morning Market Talk with Reuters 📈

I spoke with Reuters this morning about what's driving markets as investors navigate another volatile start to the week.

A few key themes on the radar:

• Inflation in focus: This week's U.S. PPI and CPI reports will be major catalysts for the Federal Reserve's next move.

• Geopolitical risk rising: Escalating tensions in the Middle East are keeping investors on edge and pushing oil prices to their highest levels since late July.

• Pressure on the TSX: Financials, industrials and technology stocks moved lower this morning, with Shopify falling to a one-month low.

• Markets remain cautious: With inflation, energy prices and geopolitical uncertainty all in play, investors are watching the incoming data closely before positioning for the Fed's decision later this month.

As I told Reuters:
"This week's PPI and CPI are going to be major catalysts for what the Fed does at the end of the month. Until then, investors are on edge, watching what's happening with the Middle East as escalations start rising again."

Always great to contribute to the market conversation with Reuters.

I was back on BNN Bloomberg last Friday discussing some of the key themes shaping markets right now.

A few of the topics we covered:

• Canadian consumer: What the latest retail sales data is telling us about the health of the Canadian economy and consumer.

• Bond market: The U.S. 30-year Treasury yield and what developments in the long end of the curve could mean for financial conditions and equity markets.

• AI trade: Why I believe we are moving into Phase 2 of the AI opportunity, with the potential for market leadership to broaden as companies increasingly leverage and monetize AI.

• Stocks on my radar: Uber and Micron, two companies I’m watching as we look for opportunities tied to powerful long-term growth themes.

Markets continue to balance economic data, interest rates, earnings and rapidly evolving technology trends. As always, the focus is on separating the short-term noise from the longer-term opportunities.

Over the years, I've been fortunate to share my perspective on markets, investing and the economy with some of the world's leading financial media.

From Reuters and The Globe and Mail to CNBC and BNN Bloomberg, each conversation is an opportunity to cut through the noise, put market moves into perspective, and share insights that help investors better understand what is shaping their portfolios.

Markets are constantly evolving. The responsibility to stay informed, remain disciplined and provide thoughtful advice never changes.

Grateful for the trust of the journalists and networks who continue to invite me into these conversations, and most importantly, for the trust our clients place in us every day.

Insight that earns attention. Advice that earns trust.

I had the opportunity to speak with Oral Health, one of Canada’s leading dental publications, about what the latest economic data could mean for Canadian dentists and dental practices.

With Canada’s unemployment rate falling to a two-year low of 6.4%, there are encouraging signs that the economy and labour market are gaining momentum. But the picture remains nuanced.

We discussed how employment and wage growth can influence patient spending, particularly for elective and cosmetic procedures, as well as the impact of interest rates, trade uncertainty and the ongoing challenge of recruiting and retaining skilled dental professionals.

One of the key points I emphasized is that improvements in the economy don’t necessarily translate immediately into higher discretionary spending. As consumers rebuild savings and gain confidence in their employment, spending on elective procedures often follows with a lag.

It was a pleasure contributing my perspective on the intersection of economics, financial markets and the business of dentistry.

Thank you to Dina Al-Shibeeb and the Oral Health team for including my insights.

Read the full article:
https://www.oralhealthgroup.com/clinical/dental-industry-2/canada-unemployment-rate-dental-practices-1003997961/

Canada’s unemployment rate hits two-year low: Five takeaways for dentists - Oral Health Group Canada’s unemployment rate fell to 6.4 per cent in July. Experts explain what jobs, wages, tariffs and borrowing costs mean for dental practices.

Gold just posted its biggest weekly move in months. The harder question is what's actually driving it.

Had the opportunity to join BNN Bloomberg Trading Day on Friday to discuss the spike in gold, what Q2 earnings are telling us about this market, and where we see opportunity from here.

Context matters on gold. The metal climbed back above $4,350 an ounce on Friday, its highest in two months, after surging more than 7% on the week. But it remains roughly a quarter below the record near $5,600 set in January, following its worst quarter in thirteen years. 

Key points from the discussion:

🔷 This move was about rates, not fear. July payrolls showed the U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23,000 jobs against forecasts for an 80,000 gain, and markets cut the odds of a September rate hike to roughly 44% from 67% a week earlier. 

🔷 Gold pays no yield. When the expected path of rates moves lower, the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset falls, that mechanism explains most of last week's move. 

🔷 Progress on reopening the Strait of Hormuz has eased energy costs, taking pressure off the inflation picture and giving the metal a second tailwind.

🔷 Gold's 2026 round trip, from a January record to below $4,000 in June and back again, is a reminder that it is a volatile diversifier, not a safe harbour.

🔷 Q2 earnings remain the engine of this market. Earnings growth approaching 30% year over year, with strength broadening well beyond mega-cap technology into financials, industrials, communication services and healthcare.

🔷 The AI investment cycle is no longer just a semiconductor story. Capital is moving into software, infrastructure, industrial automation, utilities and enterprise productivity, which widens the earnings opportunity considerably.

Gold's role in a portfolio is diversification, not prediction. The same discipline applies everywhere else: position around fundamentals, not forecasts.

Thank you to Lindsay Biscaia and the BNN Bloomberg team for having me on.

Oil above US$100 is a headline. The more useful question is what it's telling us.

Three things I'm watching: the share of tanker traffic rerouting away from the Red Sea, whether Saudi export capacity outside the Gulf can absorb a prolonged disruption, and how quickly energy costs feed back into core inflation.

I shared some of this with the Globe and Mail for Friday's Report on Business: "The fear is this escalation is going to spread wider than the Strait of Hormuz."

The TFSA might be the most beloved account in Canada. For a US citizen living here, it can also be a quiet trap.

Here's the problem. The "tax-free" in Tax-Free Savings Account is a Canadian promise. The IRS never signed it. To the US, a TFSA is very likely just a regular taxable account. Which means the growth Canada lets you keep tax-free, the US may tax anyway.

It gets worse on the paperwork. Depending on how the TFSA is structured and what's inside it, the IRS may treat it as a foreign trust. That can drag in some of the most painful forms in the entire US tax code, the kind with penalties that start in the thousands just for filing late. And if you hold Canadian funds or ETFs inside that TFSA, you've now stacked the PFIC problem on top of the trust problem. Two landmines, one account.

So the very account a Canadian is supposed to max out first is often the one a US person in Canada should think hardest about, sometimes before contributing a dollar.

None of this means a US citizen can't build wealth in Canada. It means the account that's obvious for your neighbour may be exactly the wrong first move for you. And the time to find that out is before you fund it, not when the US filing lands.

If you hold US citizenship and a TFSA, this is worth a deliberate look. It's one of the most common and most expensive cross-border blind spots I see.

Follow for plain-language takes on cross-border wealth. Always happy to talk through what US persons in Canada are navigating on accounts like this.