Tenni & Associates Pty Ltd

More pressure on the US Treasury and interest rates.

Quote from FT:

“The world’s largest financial groups are working with Nvidia to assemble a funding package of more than $500bn for AI infrastructure development, in one of Wall Street’s most ambitious lending efforts to date.”

To understand it, you must understand the real estate cycle. Learn more here: https://realestate.propertysharemarketeconomics.com/blog-landing-page-property-share-market-economics/?utm_source=linkedin&utm_medium=post&utm_campaign=pcisignup_aifinancinganna_philpl

I have two reports for you this week!!

The first!

https://www.landcycleinvestor.com/post/the-18-year-land-cycle-poppycock-pattern-or-predictive-power

This week I sat down with property analyst Michael Matusik, who has spent more than three decades working across Australia's housing, property and planning sectors.

Michael has recently conducted his own investigation into the 18-year land cycle, prompted by questions from attendees at his annual Master Class about Samuel Benner's famous financial timetable, (shown below.)

I wrote about Benner’s chart in some detail a year or so ago in The Prophecies of Samuel Benner & George Tritch – What They Reveal About the Land Cycle.

However, Michael’s analysis gives me a good opportunity to revisit it, because there are a few important aspects of Benner’s work that are particularly relevant to where we are in the cycle today.

Rather than accepting the 18-year land cycle at face value, Michael went back through Australian housing data to see whether the long cyclical pattern could be identified independently.

I was delighted to read Michael’s analysis. It is exactly what we need to see when it comes to the cycle.

As I pointed out in my Land Cycle paper, the 1930s produced a substantial body of research into long property cycles, with researchers including Homer Hoyt, Roy Wenzlick, Arthur H. Cole and Clarence Long among many others, independently arriving at broadly the same conclusion - that there was, on average, a 16–20 year property cycle across numerous markets.

It is only when this body of evidence is properly recognised that we are likely to see broader mainstream acceptance that the land cycle is not simply an historical curiosity, but a predictable feature of the economy - and one that requires policy intervention before the speculative peak is reached, rather than attempts to repair the economic damage after the cycle has already broken!

Michael’s research found major growth peaks across markets including Blacktown, Moreton Bay, the Central Coast, Geelong, the Gold Coast, Sunshine Coast, Brisbane and Melbourne separated by approximately 18 to 21 years.

Today's report is going to flow in three sections.

- First I share Michael’s report and analysis.
- Then I'll add my own commentary on how the cycle should be viewed in the context of Samuel Benner’s financial timetable - giving some hints on how it was calculated
- Then you can sit back and listen to this week’s interview as we delve into current real estate trends and the 18-year land cycle a little further.

In today's report you'll discover..

- Does the 18-year land cycle really stand up when tested against Australian property history?
- What Michael Matusik discovered when he went looking for the pattern himself.
- The remarkable forecasting detail hidden within Samuel Benner’s famous timetable.
- What an extraordinary prediction made in the 1870s can teach us about the cycle today.
- Why the precise timing of past turning points matters far more than it first appears.
- Why the years on the Benner timetable fluctuate.
- What the timetable tells us re 2026
- And where the next great property opportunities could emerge once the cycle turns.

https://www.landcycleinvestor.com/post/the-18-year-land-cycle-poppycock-pattern-or-predictive-power

WAIT! THERE'S MORE!....

EVEN WARREN BUFFETT DOESN’T UNDERSTAND THE LAND CYCLE!

Then Callum Newman chimes in with his report, showing why even the world’s greatest investors can get caught on the wrong side of the land cycle.

He takes a fascinating look at Warren Buffett’s investment record, the mistakes buried beneath Berkshire Hathaway’s extraordinary success, and why its latest multibillion-dollar bet on US housing could prove particularly badly timed as we approach the next major turn.

You'll discover..

- Why Warren Buffett’s extraordinary investment record may hide some surprisingly costly mistakes.
- The Berkshire Hathaway strategy that helped turn Buffett into one of the world’s richest investors.
- What changed at Berkshire after 2000 — and the enormous opportunity cost Callum says followed.
- The investment decisions Buffett made as the last land cycle unravelled in 2007–08.
- Why Berkshire’s latest US$8.5 billion bet on a US homebuilder has Callum questioning the timing.
- What happens when one of the world’s greatest investors ignores the land cycle.
- Why even Berkshire Hathaway may not be the “safe” retirement stock investors assume as the cycle turns.

https://www.landcycleinvestor.com/post/even-warren-buffett-doesn-t-understand-the-land-cycle

If you enjoy Callum’s analysis, make sure you follow him over at Stockfindr on Substack.

With 15 years’ experience as a financial analyst and previous work published through Fat Tail Investment Research, Marcus Today, Livewire and Money Magazine, Callum brings the same independent, provocative thinking you’ve just read here to his own work - digging into markets, stocks and investment ideas that deserve a closer look.

It’s free to subscribe, so jump over and sign up!

https://substack.com/

Leopold Aschenbrenner was considered one of the brightest minds in AI. But intelligence alone cannot protect investors from market cycles.

His highly leveraged bet on AI infrastructure reportedly ended with an estimated $35 billion in paper wealth disappearing in a matter of days.

The story is a powerful reminder that market manias often follow a familiar pattern.

First comes innovation.

Then excitement.

Then huge profits.

Then comes the belief that the rules no longer apply.

We saw it during the dot-com boom. We saw it before the Global Financial Crisis. And today, speculation around AI infrastructure is reaching extraordinary levels.

The problem isn't innovation.

The problem is what happens when FOMO replaces discipline.

Borrowing increases. Risks are ignored. Concentrated bets grow larger. And everyone believes they are a genius while prices keep rising.

But leverage works both ways.

As markets enter the late stage of the cycle, protecting capital can become far more important than chasing the latest opportunity.

Because when the tide turns, confidence can disappear very quickly.

Read more here: https://realestate.propertysharemarketeconomics.com/the-brightest-minds-in-tech-suffered-a-35-billion-loss/?utm_source=linkedin&utm_medium=post&utm_campaign=blog_sitaware302_philpl

You ain't seen nothing yet.

AI investment boom is on track to become the largest capital spending surge in modern history.

Last year, America's biggest tech companies spent US$450 billion on AI infrastructure.

That was just the appetiser.

This year, they're expected to spend US$900 billion on chips, data centres, power and networking.

By 2027, that could reach US$1.4 trillion.
To fund it, they've already borrowed more than US$400 billion this year.

Look at previous investment manias: of the 1840s, America's canal boom, the Roaring Twenties and the dotcom bubble.

History repeats itself.

Here’s an excerpt from Akhil’s book about the stage of the cycle;

The Secret Wealth Advantage – Page 156

Chapter 10: The Land Boom

Land values boom

“While the ‘Railway Mania’ can be clearly seen in the stock market, beneath it was the land market. After all, the bulk of the capital investment required to build a line went towards acquiring land, constructing stations, depots and turnpikes, and building out town centres: in other words, into real estate development.”

To understand it, you must understand the real estate cycle. Learn more here:
https://realestate.propertysharemarketeconomics.com/newsletter-property-share-market-economics/?utm_source=linkedin&utm_medium=post&utm_campaign=pcisignup_aiboomtswaanna_philpl

The Biggest Property Downturn in 45 Years looms.... The Biggest Property Downturn in 45 Years may now be taking shape as Australia reaches the predicted peak of the 18-year land cycle. This week, I look at the extraordinary forces that have driven the final stages of the global land boom, the warning signs now emerging across property and credit mark...

Your taxes. Your mortgage.

Your freedom. When do you actually stop working for yourself?

Almost everyone with a mortgage works for two masters: the government and the bank.

So when do you finally stop paying them?

Property Sharemarket Economics (PSE) combines your taxes and mortgage to calculate your Economic Freedom Day.

But here’s the bigger question:

Why are young Australians struggling to get onto the property ladder?

It’s because land prices have become so high.

Find out more here: https://realestate.propertysharemarketeconomics.com/your-australian-economic-freedom-day-2026-ebook/?utm_source=linkedin&utm_medium=post&utm_campaign=ebooksignup_efd2026_philpl

Pay attention people!!

I’ve been advising my clients about this timing since 2015.

Many ridiculed or doubted it.

For example a former senior employee at InterPrac Financial Planning Pty Ltd, who, when in 2022 I reminded him I had forecast the 2020 recession on the 28/4/2017, (written down), and asked why didn’t we get the people I subscribe to, to educate their advisors about the cycle, or at least the signs that occur before a major share market crash, replied “The fact there’s been a land crash every 18 years in America since 1800 is a coincidence!”

Seriously the dumbest thing I’ve ever heard anyone in the Financial Planning industry ever say. (And they’ve said some Doozies!)

Like Shane Oliver predicting a housing crash in 2020, and 2021, and 2022!!!! Lol.

While our clients purchased in 2019 and made $millions!

Can’t wait for the share market crash that usually follows the peak in land prices within a couple of years to occur! Then it is so easy to make huge gains on property development!

Bring it on!
NB, Trumps policies have almost guaranteed a massive recession starting in 2027 or 2028!

He’s repeated the policies of 1926, you must know what followed over the next 6 years surely?

AUSTRALIA’S PROPERTY CRASH HAS ONLY JUST BEGUN.... Australia’s property crash may have only just begun. Catherine Cashmore examines how far prices could fall, why this downturn will be harder to reverse, and how the end of the land cycle and Kondratieff wave could spread through banks, household spending and the sharemarket.

What have you worked your whole life for?

More money? A bigger house? A better life?

But what if we’ve misunderstood what an economy is actually for?

The Natural Economy by John Young asks bigger questions about wealth, land, work, money and government.

Just 160 pages, but ideas that could change how you see the economy.

Sometimes the quietest books make you think the most.

Read more here: https://realestate.propertysharemarketeconomics.com/what-have-you-worked-your-whole-life-for-this-little-gem-of-a-book-has-the-answer/?utm_source=linkedin&utm_medium=post&utm_campaign=blog_naturaleconomykatalin_philpl

Tallest, largest, biggest… continues.

Vancouver has approved Holborn Group’s C$2.8 billion plan featuring a potential 315-metre hotel tower, which would make it the tallest building in Western Canada.

The project would also add four new buildings, 920 hotel rooms, 1,783 housing units including 237 social housing units, 70,000 sq ft of conference and meeting space, and a rooftop observation deck.

But the most interesting part isn’t the height.

It’s the timing.

Here’s an excerpt from Akhil’s book about the stage of the cycle;

The Secret Wealth Advantage – Page 191

Chapter 12: The Mania
5. Grand Designs: The World's Largest/Tallest/Longest/Deepest

"In late 1980s Japan, the resort schemes were good signs of rampant speculation. Other cycles can furnish examples: the Empire State Building in New York (announced in 1929), the Sears Tower in Chicago (1970), the Messe Turm in Frankfurt (1988) and the Burj Khalifa (2004) were all started in the heady final years of their respective cycles and were, in their day, the tallest buildings in their continent or globally."

To understand what it means, learn more here: https://realestate.propertysharemarketeconomics.com/newsletter-property-share-market-economics/?utm_source=linkedin&utm_medium=post&utm_campaign=pcisignup_canadatallesttoweranna_philpl