21/09/2026
📈 SPICE & BLACK PEPPER MARKET UPDATE - WEEK 38/2026 📈
🖤 Stable Domestic Prices Vietnam's domestic black pepper reference prices held perfectly stable at 139,000 VND/kg throughout the week. While the price board showed a quiet, consolidating week, the underlying data reveals a tightening global market.
🚢 Robust Export Milestones Vietnam's 8-month 2026 pepper exports reached 190,153 tons, a 14.2% increase year-on-year. The US remains the single largest buyer at 44,349 tons. In the first 15 days of September alone, exports hit 10,915 tonnes ($70.0 million), driven by a 62.4% surge to the US and a 34.1% rise to China.
🇨🇳 The Approaching Supply Competition China's 8-month purchases (20,495 tons) have already surpassed their total 2025 volume. While buying activity is pausing briefly for the Mid-Autumn and National Day holidays, fierce supply competition is expected in early October when Chinese buyers return for Q4 stockpiling.
🏦 Fed Rate Hike & Buyer Behavior The US Federal Reserve resumed rate hikes on September 16, adding 25 basis points to a 3.75-4.00% target range due to persistent inflation. This increase in borrowing costs may pressure buyers into more selective restocking and requests for longer payment terms, changing the landed cost of pepper.
🛡️ Compliance Shaping Market Access Food safety and border rules are increasingly impacting delivery costs and timing. US FDA detentions for Salmonella highlight the need for validated steam-sterilization, while China's border clearance at Hekou is facing 1-2 day delays due to stricter aflatoxin screening. In India, an unconfirmed Minimum Import Price (MIP) of ₹500/kg has reportedly pushed shipments down.
🌦️ Favorable Crop Weather Unlike the severe storms (Ragasa and Bualoi) that caused disruption and flooding in late September 2025, the Central Highlands experienced a calm week with routine monsoon showers. This stable weather pattern is highly favorable for current berry development and the 2027 crop bloom.
⚓ Diverging Freight Environments Ocean freight is creating two distinct buying environments. Pre-Golden Week demand and capacity management have pushed Transpacific rates up, with Shanghai to New York climbing 3% to $9,587. Conversely, Asia-Europe rates are softening, with Shanghai to Rotterdam dropping 5% to $4,092 due to weaker demand and the gradual return of Suez services.
📥 View the full report at: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1nHgmZ_YlDlRbgwlppvsjDKv-Amv_w0DQ/view?usp=sharing
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