Rickus Capital Strategies

As we try to orient ourselves to what may lie ahead as we finish up 2022, it can be hard to get our bearings, especially when we feel buffeted about by forces that are either unique or that we haven’t experienced in some time - high inflation, international conflicts, economic challenges, and more.

But remember, there are positives on the other side. Historical patterns, a strong job market, positive future valuations – all strong signs that paired with having a thoughtful plan and the right support will guide you through whatever bumps there may be along the way.

For more as we conclude our midyear outlook, start here: https://view.ceros.com/lpl/midyearoutlook2022/p/6

Lets take a minute to look at what we can expect from stocks the rest of the year and going forward.

Stocks will face a number of headwinds as we continue through the second half of the year, but the amount of turbulence will likely depend on the pace at which inflation falls.

Volatility may persist, but an improved macroeconomic environment may set the stage for higher valuations, further earnings growth, and solid gains for stocks over the rest of the year.

Want more details? Learn more on the 2022 stock midyear outlook here: https://view.ceros.com/lpl/midyearoutlook2022/p/3

What’s happening with the economy as we push through the second half of 2022?

Inflation is the big topic and it will likely cool throughout this year, but the cool-down period will be long and slow and inflation will still very likely be above the Fed’s long run target of 2%.

Improvements in supply chains have started to impact consumer prices. Technically, consumer price changes lagged by four months are 72% correlated with the New York Fed’s Global Supply Chain Pressure Gauge. The good news? Given the improvement in supply chains, inflation pressures should subside.

Learn more on the 2022 economy midyear outlook here: https://view.ceros.com/lpl/midyearoutlook2022/p/2

What are we seeing with bonds as we enter the core portion of the second half of 2022?

Despite the historically poor start to the year, the value proposition for core bonds has actually improved recently. Investing is a forward-looking exercise and with the back-up in yields that has already taken place this year, we believe now could be as good as it’s been in quite some time for core bonds.

Learn more on the 2022 bond outlook here:https://view.ceros.com/lpl/midyearoutlook2022/p/4

Investors cheered the two better-than-expected inflation reports last week, pushing the S&P 500 to 16% above its June 16 low and only 11% below its all-time high. After this rebound, the key question investors are asking is whether this is a bear market rally that will soon fizzle or the start of a new bull market.

The Bulls Are Back In Town? Friday, August 12, 2022

Did you know that the year after midterm elections has historically been quite strong for stocks? Incredibly, the S&P 500 has been higher a year after EVERY SINGLE midterm election since 1950. That is 18 out of 18 years, with the average gain a year later a very solid 14.5%.

Interestingly, breaking it down by presidential party doesn’t show much difference, up 14.8% under a Republican and 14.5% under a Democrat.

Learn more on the 2022 policy outlook here: https://view.ceros.com/lpl/midyearoutlook2022/p/5

Just for fun we took a look at which EPL teams the stock market, as measured by the S&P 500, seemed to cheer.

English Premier League Soccer Kickoff: Do Stocks Cheer Red Or Blue? August 8, 2022

While Friday’s strong jobs report provides more evidence that the U.S. economy is not currently in recession, odds are still perhaps a coin flip or better that one may come in the next year.

The Case for a U.S. Recession Weakens LPL Research discusses changing recession prospects and what that might mean for stocks.

Investors love to chase returns. In the near term it can potentially be a successful strategy that has some strong academic and industry research behind it. But nothing lasts forever and markets move in cycles.

What the Last 10 Years Can Tell Us About the Next 10 Wednesday, July 27, 2022

Most retired workers depend on multiple streams of income during their retirement. Two of the most common such income streams are Social Security and pensions.

Pension vs. Social Security: Which Will Give You More Money in Retirement? Most retired workers depend on multiple streams of income during their retirement. Two of the most common such income streams are Social Security and pensions. If we look at pension vs. Social Security income, we find significant differences. Retired workers … Continue reading → The post Pension...