Kathy Lien CFP

Huge USDJPY drop last night. Was it Japanese intervention? Typically Japanese intervention is 300 to 500 Pips in a matter of minutes this was only 100 so possible but suss. Either way, downside risk more risky than upside USDJPY

🚨 Gold is testing a major psychological level: $4,000/oz After falling to its lowest level in seven months, the big question isn’t whether $4,000 gets tested—it’s whether gold can **close and hold above it**. What’s driving the selloff? 📈 A stronger U.S. dollar after the Fed’s hawkish hold 📉 Leveraged positions being liquidated 🌍 Easing safe-haven demand 🗓️ Potential quarter-end and half-year window dressing Key levels to watch in the video Could this be the start of a deeper correction or is gold approaching a major buying zone?

Gold traders went into the Fed meeting hoping Kevin Warsh would open the door to rate cuts. What they got was the opposite.

Nine Fed officials now project rates finishing the year above current levels. The probability of a September hike jumped from 38% to 63% in a single session. Warsh made clear that inflation is still too high to seriously discuss cuts, and that a growing number of officials believe policy may actually need to tighten further from here.

Gold reversed lower almost immediately. And it wasn't just a sentiment reaction.

Higher rates hurt gold on two fronts at once. When Treasury yields rise, the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset like gold goes up. When rate expectations push the dollar higher, gold becomes more expensive for international buyers. Both things are happening right now.

The chart is confirming what the macro is saying. Gold has broken below its 200-day moving average, one of the most closely watched long-term trend indicators in the market. The next major support is around $4,000 and if that breaks decisively, the selloff could go much deeper before buyers step back in.

🚨 Markets ripping on the Iran deal. Don't get comfortable.
This is the most dangerous week of the quarter:
🔹 $CL crude cracked a 3-month low on Hormuz reopening

🔹 $NQ futures up 2%, risk-on everywhere

🔹 Warsh runs his FIRST Fed meeting Wed (new dot plot, likely easing-to-neutral shift)

🔹 5 central banks decide rates, $USDJPY in play as BoJ hikes

🔹 Retail sales drops SAME day as the Fed

🔹 Iran deal "done" but not signed til Friday (and US closed for Juneteenth)
One headline and this whole move reverses.

Wall Street is DONE with this war, but the market isn't done with us. 📉 Stocks are somehow holding green despite ugly data: PPI came in hot, jobs came in weak, the worst combo for equities. Stagflation whispers are getting louder. Meanwhile, Trump just threatened to take Kharg Island - Iran's oil lifeline and the ECB went ahead with a rate hike anyway. Traders are desperate to move on. The headlines won't let them.

Stocks won't quit. 📈 Oil's sliding, yields are cooling, and the rebound just keeps extending. Watch the video to understand what is doing all the heavy lifting. Implications for Fed, inflation and more

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