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A president-to-be whose only contribution to the abatement of the worst sovereign food financial crisis in 15 year is “silence” (his words) is a traitor.

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Albert Fernandez appears to have run afoul of US securities laws.

Did Alberto Fernandez Commit a 10b-5 Violation? While Alberto Fernandez may claim that he is a mere presidential candidate he is, in fact, Argentina's presumptive next president: the 15% gap between him and Macri is realistically unsurmountable. Consequently, ever since his primary landslide, Fernandez's every utterance carries the weight of a po

Alberto Fernandez today explicitly declared Argentina's debt "unpayable" and announced the intention of seeking a restructuring not only with the IMF but with private bondholders as well.

Most worrisome of all, he analogized the prospective "dialogue" with bondholders to the one Kirchner had in 2003: a take-it-or-leave-it offer to write off 2/3 of the private debt outstanding.

Fernandez's statement is as self-destructive as it's baffling: Argentine sovereign CDS already shot up by 300 bps and capital flight is sure to accelerate after two days of relative calm.

The only rational explanation for his statement is that its objective is to drive down bond prices further in order to make a 50% haircut appear palatable at restructuring time.

If that is indeed the strategy, it should fail in our opinion. Indeed, our own estimation is that, even if restructured, Argentine bonds should have a recovery value in excess of 60%.

Sooner or later, the more sophisticated investors will do the math and will frustrate Fernandez's efforts to "talk the market (https://lnkd.in/dymf3Pr).

Optimal Sovereign Debt Restructuring - DecisionBoundaries

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Carlos Abadi on LinkedIn: "I'll be honest: I never imagined Argentina going off the rails when I started writing this article about a month ago. Unfortunately (for all but the shorts), the premise of the article -- a mechanism to maximize... August 15, 2019: Carlos Abadi posted images on LinkedIn