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Pivotal Research 2025: Five Reasons Investors Are Feeling Good About Stocks Again by The Wall Street Journal

"Recent gains reflect more than just about artificial intelligence

Anxiety has given way to hope on .

Stocks are back near records, recovering from a slump spurred by fears that the excitement about the boom has outstripped the potential profits.

valuations could be worse

Stocks currently look very expensive by some measures, such as traditional price-to-earnings ratios. And stock valuations look less stretched in other ways.

Economic growth is supporting

Ultimately, stocks are closely linked to the near-term outlook for consumer spending.

Analysts expect 2026 to be another great year for companies in particular, even as they spend huge sums on infrastructure.

It isn’t just about big tech stocks

The Russell 2000 index of smaller company reached a record high last week.The S&P 500 equal weight index—which gives the same influence to each company regardless of size—is also near a record, providing hope that a tech-centered selloff wouldn’t be disastrous.

Inflation expectations are anchored

Sticky inflation could make it harder for the Fed to keep cutting interest rates. If the —potentially under greater sway from President Trump’s appointees—cuts rates anyway, investors could lose confidence in its commitment to stable prices, sending shock waves through .

Investors, though, are confident that inflation pressures are easing. expectations, after jumping earlier this decade, remain anchored.

Prospects for longer-run economic growth have improved

Investors also have a big-picture reason to feel good. The economy, whatever it does over the next several months, looks to be in much healthier shape than it was for more than a decade following the 2008-09 crisis.

“For a lot of , you have higher confidence to in general whether it’s equities or fixed income when real yields are positive,” said Thanos Bardas, senior portfolio manager and co-head of investment grade at Neuberger Berman-USA. “It looks like the is operating at potential or above potential.” - WSJ

https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/stock-market-2026-hope-d8fab52d

Five Reasons Investors Are Feeling Good About Stocks Again Recent gains reflect more than just optimism about artificial intelligence.

Pivotal Research 2025: How Much Are Stock Funds Up in 2025 So Far? by The Wall Street Journal

"12.6%

That follows a late-November rally that left funds virtually unchanged on average for the month:" - WSJ

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-12-08-2025/card/how-much-are-stock-funds-up-in-2025-so-far--LC4MOiNrYeNRnDAvF0E6

Oftentimes, much of the volatility, declines, fears, and negativity or hype dissipates with , and we're quickly back to or higher than where we started. In addition, the article shows a nice graphic of how international is outperforming domestic U.S. Stocks. This demonstrates the importance of diversification and/or , which our newsletters often talk about. Some may wonder or think, "But has been stinking for so long!" But that also depends on what international an is buying. They are not all the same, thus reinforcing quality and selective . Many of them did really well, while U.S. in general appeared to be doing better than they were. Nothing is guaranteed, the past does not always repeat, and involves risk, and it's important to keep different perspectives in mind.

How Much Are Stock Funds Up in 2025 So Far? That's how much the typical U.S.-stock mutual fund or exchange-traded fund is up for the year through last month, according to LSEG data. That follows a late-November rally that left funds virtually unchanged on average for the month:

Pivotal Research 2025: Here’s How Much , Beef and Banana Prices Have Gone Up by The Wall Street Journal

"Sharp price increases in coffee, beef, bananas and other household items over the past year have fueled widespread frustration with the rising cost of living. The administration’s efforts to walk back tariffs on these and other goods could ease the pressure, economists say.

Average retail prices for ground are up more than 40% in the past year as of September, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Average retail prices for ground beef and bananas have increased by 11.5% and 8.6% since September 2024—well ahead of the overall inflation rate of about 3%.

On Friday, moved to lower tariffs on beef, coffee, and dozens of other and food goods as a way to directly address Americans' concerns about the .

-price has been a particular burden for low- and middle-income , who tend to spend a bigger share of their income on . Anger over contributed to Republican defeats in this month’s gubernatorial elections in and .

The U.S. is a major beef producer, but cattle herds have been shrinking for years, partly because of drought, pushing up prices. Imports from abroad help make up the shortfall, but make those more expensive. , one of the biggest sources of both imported and coffee in the U.S., has faced a 50% .

Either way, companies often take a while to lower even when their own fall. “Often prices take the elevator up and the stairs down,” said Comerica Bank’s Adams" - WSJ

https://www.wsj.com/economy/heres-how-much-coffee-beef-and-banana-prices-have-gone-up-fa8dd563

Whether high costs come down or not anytime soon on a variety of products, it often behooves people to find better alternatives, , and long-term where they can, before it's too late.

Here’s How Much Coffee, Beef and Banana Prices Have Gone Up The Trump administration moved to lower tariffs in an attempt to make these household staples more affordable.

Pivotal Research 2025: Why Private Funds Might Not Be for You — Intelligent Investor by The Wall Street Journal

"But the difference between small and large isn’t simply a matter of how much they have. It’s a structural, not a , difference. And that’s why alternative so rarely make sense either for individual investors or for small institutions like local pension .

This Small-Town Fund Has a Warning for Millions of

If you think cashing out of a is easy, just ask a guy who used to manage $750 billion." - WSJ

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-11-07-2025/card/why-private-funds-might-not-be-for-you-intelligent-investor-ufnfCrLTJqomKdQgB4iW

Before this year's news and the intensity of people wanting to get out of many private funds, private credit, and private equity offerings, this 2025 article pointed to the many potential challenges. Investing involves risk. And sometimes keeping things simple, easy to understand, and liquid among other best practices, can do more wonders than marketed, complicated investment products with high fees.

Why Private Funds Might Not Be for You — Intelligent Investor The managers and marketers of alternative assets like to say it isn’t fair that big institutional investors have been able to benefit from their high returns while smaller investors have been excluded. But the difference between small and large investors isn’t simply a matter of how much money t...

Pivotal Research 2025: Misery Is Bullish for Stocks by The Wall Street Journal

"May 1980 was bleak. Bloomberg Businessweek magazine had run a totally serious cover story titled “The Death of .” The U.S. was in recession, unemployment was 7.5%, a gallon of cost $5 in today’s money and the embassy hostages were in their eighth month of captivity.

It was also a great time to buy .

While the didn’t start until 1982, the S&P 500’s total return over the next five years was 118%. Other periods of have been auspicious, too.

is hard to measure. One way is just to ask people about their economic prospects. The University of Michigan -sentiment index hit a cyclical low of 51.7 in May 1980. An who waited until the next such low, in March 1982, got a 224% total return over five years—about as good as it gets.

According to The Prudent Speculator (TPS), an Investment Newsletter, the S&P 500’s return has been positive in every five-year span following 11 cyclical lows in the Michigan survey. The average gain is 106%.

Its also highlights a survey by the American Association of Individual Investors - AAII. Stocks’ six-month returns were highest when the spread between self-professed and was most negative—in other words, when respondents were most pessimistic.

If you’re feeling envious of those buying opportunities, have a look at last week’s Michigan sentiment number. It came in well below expectations at 50.3, the second-lowest result ever. And the survey just had a bull-bear spread in its most pessimistic decile.

However are about , , or the country’s direction, the is expanding and is low.

Plus, their feelings about the person in the skew their replies in surveys. Low is relative to our recent, gentle experiences, and also more ." - WSJ and Spencer Jakab, author and journalist

Timely quote from OM Investments last week post!

Many stocks, economics, investments have grown from November to April and that was despite politics (November government shutdown) or ( ). Risk is essentially always involved and nothing is guaranteed to repeat. Time will tell, indeed.

Read full article or subscribe at

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-11-14-2025/card/misery-is-bullish-for-stocks-9DJUO96P71kdHPvxZ3j2

Misery Is Bullish for Stocks 📉 This is an online version of my Markets A.M. newsletter. Get investing insights in your inbox each weekday by signing up here—it’s free. 📧 May 1980 was bleak. The U.S. was in recession, unemployment was 7.5%, a gallon of unleaded cost $5

Pivotal Research 2025: Dour Consumer-Confidence Data Adds to Investors’ Bad Mood by The Wall Street Journal

"Not only did the University of Michigans headline confidence index fall to a three year low but “once you start digging underneath the surface, it gets ugly pretty quickly,” said Jack Ablin, CFA chief at Cresset .

Ablin noted the particularly sharp decline in among lower-income households but pointed out that higher-income are also less optimistic than they were at the start of the year." - WSJ

Back in November last year consumer sentiment were at three year lows and most recently a few weeks ago touched the all-time low for the University of Michigan study (after ramping up dramatically from the November low). Interestingly sentiment was also fairly low in November, then ramped up as well before April, then dramatically went lower than November too.

It begs the question, with near lows, and stocks up recently near all-time highs, unemployment low, economy growing, gas prices and inflation relatively high but recently retreating, who's right and what gives?

It's probably not a question of who is right but more of what gives. Is economic/investment performance overestimating many consumers or is the and our underestimated by many consumers? Time will tell. One thing is clear, out of the two, one is more based on , opinions, and perceptions vs. facts than the other. And that can be finicky. Many leaders are likely aware of these dynamics and it behooves them to improve them.

Many , , have grown from November to April and that was despite (November government shutdown) or geopolitics (Iran war). is essentially always involved and nothing is guaranteed to repeat. Time will tell, indeed.

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-11-07-2025/card/dour-consumer-confidence-data-adds-to-investors-bad-mood-aAx8U9NTLqH0YA70A87z

Dour Consumer-Confidence Data Adds to Investors’ Bad Mood The driving force behind this week’s stock selloff might be concerns about tech valuations, but Friday’s dour consumer confidence data has certainly not helped. Not only did the University of Michigan's headline confidence index fall to a three year low but “once you start digging underneath t...

Pivotal Research 2025: AI Borrowing Floods Debt Markets

by The Wall Street Journal

"The mad scramble by to build for is spilling over into , with a slew of public and private mega deals since September. would have to spend 94% of operating cash flow to pay for their buildout themselves and are turning to debt to help defray some of that cost, according to Bank of America.

Deals so far this year have raised almost as much money as all done between 2020 and 2024, the research said." - WSJ

Whether we are in an AI bubble or not, begets a few perspectives. Does AI help advance ? Does AI help make our lives more efficient? Can AI help cut company costs (like large employee costs (we'll get back to that in a moment))? Can AI help some companies be in the forefront of competition? Do consumers want more advanced AI to help them make better decisions or results? If the answer is yes to many of these questions, then it makes sense that many or companies see it as a potential good return for the risk of investing in it. involves risk so it is up to individuals and entities to make the right decision for them. And naturally, getting in at the right price that's not overinflated is in the eye of the beholder.

As far as AI taking , it's clear businesses want to cut costs to increase profits, and employees are a large input of costs. Thus key / seeking higher profit, will be motivated to do what they do. A better question may be, how are people helping or protecting themselves to keep income coming in the future? and may be a big part of that. And maybe AI, can help the everyday with the appropriate amount of , make profits and too.

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-10-31-2025/card/ai-borrowing-floods-debt-markets-7Ds5YnpFcxTtOGm49sPL

AI Borrowing Floods Debt Markets The mad scramble by Silicon Valley to build data centers for artificial intelligence is spilling over into debt markets, with a slew of public and private mega deals since September. Hyperscalers would have to spend 94% of operating cash flow to [pay for their AI buildout](https://www.wsj.com/tech/a

Pivotal Research 2025: 'Just Focus on Being a DJ’— Trump Attacks Goldman CEO Over Tariffs by The Wall Street Journal

" Trump lashed out at Goldman Sachs and Chief Executive David Solomon, days after the said U.S. are likely to bear the bulk of costs caused by tariffs.

“David Solomon and Goldman Sachs refuse to give credit where credit is due. They made a bad prediction a long time ago on both the repercussion and the themselves, and they were wrong, just like they are wrong about so much else,” said.

“I think that David should go out and get himself a new or, maybe, he ought to just focus on being a , and not bother running a major Financial Institution.” - WSJ

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/cpi-report-today-inflation-stock-market-08-12-2025/card/-just-focus-on-being-a-dj-trump-attacks-goldman-ceo-over-tariffs-5g4UFMkV4ZXwRnmfnYGc

Personal attacks aside, one year later after tariffs were installed, a plethora of research shows consumers and are paying higher prices due to tariffs.

"We find that nearly 90 percent of the tariffs’ economic burden fell on U.S. firms and consumers." - Federal Reserve Bank of New York

https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/02/who-is-paying-for-the-2025-u-s-tariffs/

"Importers and consumers in the US bear 96 percent of the tariff burden, according to new research from the Kiel Institute for the World Economy. Ultimately, these findings mean that US companies will be confronted with shrinking margins and consumers with higher prices in the long run. " - Institute for the World Economy

https://www.kielinstitut.de/publications/news/americas-own-goal-americans-pay-almost-entirely-for-trumps-tariffs/

" households paid $1,000 more for the same goods over the past year, with lower-income hit the hardest." - Al Jazeera English

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/2/trumps-tariffs-one-year-on-how-americans-are-paying-the-price

It is often important to monitor and regardless of politics and policies. Spending more unnecessarily and not cutting costs, can be more detrimental to one's and down the road.

‘Just Focus on Being a DJ’—Trump Attacks Goldman CEO Over Tariffs President Trump lashed out at Goldman Sachs and Chief Executive David Solomon, days after the bank said U.S. consumers are likely to bear the bulk of [costs caused by tariffs](https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-08-11-2025/card/americans-are-shouldering-most-of-trum

Happy Holidays & Betting Better Tomorrows🍍🌦️🌴 It's a we're attaining better tomorrows! As a thank you and reward to old/pre-existing newsletter subscribers and recent subscribers & followers, we will be diving into current hot topics + betting better tomorrows.

Here is a quote from this dense and incomplete edition (there is so much to cover!).

"Dying is easy. is a pain in the butt. It's like an athletic event. You've got to train for it. You've got to eat right. You've got to exercise. Your health account, your bank account, they're the same thing. The more you put in, the more you can take out. is king and is queen: together, you have a kingdom." - Jack LaLanne (amazing history and man by the way)



Here are hot topics we will touch on, such as:

Forewarnings to Reality II

Betting Worse Tomorrows

Most Admire

Some Forewarned Keys to

Reserve to Preserve

Foods That Increase/Decrease Life

Update

Getting Better

Better

Full-Price Shirt or Discount

Drinks and Boosts

Sugar Is a Preservative Pt. 1

and more

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/happy-spring-holidays-betting-better-tomorrows-steve-o--xmcvc?lipi=urn%3Ali%3Apage%3Ad_flagship3_series_entity%3BgIu%2FyMRgS8KyY4xmjPw6aw%3D%3D

Happy Spring Holidays & Betting Better Tomorrows🍍🌦️🌴 Happy upcoming holidays and special time with loved ones! Whether you're celebrating Spring Equinox, Eid al-Fitr, Women's History Month, International Week of Solidarity with Peoples Struggling Against Racism & Discrimination, Cesar Chavez Day, Tomb Sweeping Day/Qingming Festival, Easter, Arab Ameri

Pivotal Research 2025: A New Generation of ‘Buy the Dip’ Investors Is Propping Up the Market (Part 2)

Investors were told to fear the crash & instead learned to love the dip

by The Wall Street Journal

"Today, those who have waded into the stock market, & stayed invested, have watched their portfolios swell. The S&P 500 has become a real-time barometer of many Americans’ rising wealth, outperforming other assets like houses or bonds. There were 537,000 401(k) millionaires at the brokerage Fidelity Investments as of the end of 2024, a record.

& stocks are more intertwined with many Americans’ finances than ever. as a percentage of household financial assets surged to 36% in the first quarter, the highest level in records going back to the 1950s, according to Ed Clissold, CFA, chief U.S. strategist at Ned Davis Research.

This has occurred at a time of a wider societal shift: Trading & has morphed into entertainment for many . Group chats pop with comments from friends on sports, hot stocks & memes. Everyone seems to know someone who made millions overnight in .

Changed attitudes toward have coincided with tech advances that have made it easier, & cheaper, to trade a wide variety of assets. Some brokerages have sought to “gamify” , creating the look & feel of a within their apps. At the same time, they also offer high-octane trades on things such as options & prediction markets.

Of course, every bull market ends. & the higher that valuations are at that point, the more jarring the fall can be.

But if there has been a meaningful change in investor psychology, there could be an underappreciated cushion that limits the damage. Today’s new, bullish might function like short sellers did previously, stepping in to buy when everyone else was selling.

Charles Schwab recently surveyed its customers & found that around 80% said they to buy if grew volatile in coming months.

The impulse to stay invested might be more powerful, & durable, than many in markets ." -WSJ

https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/a-new-generation-of-buy-the-dip-investors-is-propping-up-the-market-1641b2ac

Is there really a new younger generation or class of investors that buy & hold more than usual? Or are there strategic people across generations & age groups that tend to buy & hold or buy when asset prices are low because they see a good deal or potential opportunity? At some point, one has to imagine the fear of assets falling too low, or the need to sell assets to cover expenses, taking shape at different times for different people. The real question, potentially, is who planned to be able to be okay/confident & have enough on standby when asset prices extremely decline due to volatility & a large fear in markets take place to be able to hold &/or buy? See new LinkedInn newsletter for more!

A New Generation of ‘Buy the Dip’ Investors Is Propping Up the Market The resilience of individual investors may signal something more than just misplaced optimism.