Pioneer Wealth Strategies

After decades of being universally infuriated by touchtone/automated phone systems, we're now paying for software to do it to each other.

Way to stick it to the man, folks.

Crude oil under $70 despite months of Saudi production cuts.

Yield curve inverted more severely and for longer than ever, or close at least.

And now it’s steepening.

Btw, if someone tells you that’s a sign that things are fine, run.

Forward rate curves screaming that the Fed will cut, years in advance.

Constant downward revisions of headline payroll reports, then census data foreshadowed further revisions of around 1mm months ago—which was just recently confirmed correct.

Every Fed official, institutional money manager, and so-called expert on my timeline during the past two years:

- Soft landing
- No landing
- Sticky inflation
- Strong labor market
- Resilient consumer
- Higher for longer

It’s called a business cycle for a reason. The Fed, at least until recently, would mock you for suggesting such cycles exist. They’re still learning.

Imagine your pilot learning like the Fed or your advisor while he’s flying the plane.

Totally “strong and resilient” economy. Soft landing here we come. F that. NO LANDING!

The Fed totally knows what they’re doing. They’re not being the curve at all!

(Not that it would matter if they were. Rate cuts don’t do anything—other than more damage anyway.)

Oh goodie. It's time for the financial media to wave incense at the altar of central banks while they flap their lips at Jackson Hole.

What an annual ritual this is.

Good chance for a bounce here in the Nasdaq futures. My sense, but it’s just a feeling, is it’ll be important for this little “double bottom” on the intraday chart to hold.

If that holds, then we might have cleared the decks for a big rally—“Rate cuts woohoo!”

At which point the bulls will take endless victory laps, lecturing anyone who said a word about these profound market movements.

Fun!

Precious metals join the puke job in the morning, as I had suggested overnight.

The only things that are up are treasuries and the Swiss Franc. Spoiler: that’s not a good sign.😳

As for equities, I think we’re seeing what happens when we outsource our markets to, as Simplify’s Mike Green calls it, the world’s dumbest algorithm.

Did you give me cash? Buy.

Did you ask for cash? Sell.

🤣🤣🤣

Doesn’t look like it’s overheating?! You sure?!

And then he says it’s not the Fed’s job to look backward at data points.

You could’ve fooled me! Because I’m pretty sure that’s all the Fed has ever done.

The Fed is at 5.25% and the 2 year note is at 3.66%! Guess which one is going to follow the other, you know, looking backward!

He just said it again! “The Fed should be forward looking.” Says the worst forecasters on earth.

Dear me.

Now it’s time for the Fed to enter the chat, preposterously late to the party as ever, with their useless rate cuts.

The same rate cuts we were told by permabulls would prevent this sort of thing.

Just like they tell us rate cuts will save us every cycle.

And they never do.

Nasdaq futures down 6% before a slight bounce. Nikkei down 10%. Bitcoin smashed. Australian Dollar hammered. Yen continues to soar off the lows after a profound 40% crash.

Maybe this whole BTFD, cult of Vanguard, just pay effectively zero fees and go guts long large cap tech, have fun staying poor, mother of all speculative bubbles is finally unwinding—at blinding speed.

Meanwhile treasuries are on a tear. Speaking of that, what happened to the “treasury issuance” crowd? We don’t have to like it, but the only thing with a massive bid is the debt of the most irresponsible government in history.

Gold and silver holding up well despite likely being liquidated to meet margin calls in other positions. They could very well flush on the open later this morning.

If I had to guess, I’d say this is just the overture. We probably rally from here as the hope machine fires up again for awhile longer.

The myth of the passive investing free ride seems to be dying hard. It turns out you can’t get 15-20% per year for free.

If you’re not paying for the product, you are the product.

"We don't see a recession. The hard data just doesn't show that. The soft data just starting to suggest slowing.

"People are wealthier today. They're not levered like in the past."

I don't want to name this guy and throw him under the bus, but my goodness. These people manage billions.