Darrell Delphen Macro

Money vs. Currency

Central banks began increasing gold purchases in their reserve accounts years ago. One reason often discussed is diversification away from concentrated exposure to fiat currencies and sovereign debt.

Think about it… central banks can create additional currency, yet many of them are buying gold.

To me, that raises an interesting question.

My opinion: gold is where reserves migrate when confidence, scarcity, and preserving purchasing power become priorities over long periods of time.

Gold = money.
Currency = credit.

That distinction matters.

A U.S. dollar is legally a currency and even carries the wording “Federal Reserve Note” — a reminder that modern monetary systems operate differently than commodity-backed money.

History shows currencies can be expanded over time. Hard assets tend to attract attention when debt levels become elevated.

When debt reaches very high levels, concerns about debt sustainability, financial repression, monetization, or even sovereign debt stress become more relevant to watch.

Not investment advice — I've been talking about this for over 10 years, but I believe it is just something everyone needs to be thinking about more and more.

Miners are blowing out earnings and buying back shares.

THIS USUALLY OCCURS IN OVERPRICE MARKETS

There’s roughly $4 trillion in projected IPO market cap expected to hit the market between now and early next year.

SpaceX alone is rumored around a $2 trillion valuation. Then you have Anthropic and OpenAI potentially approaching $1 trillion valuations combined.

Macro analyst Paul Kedrosky pointed out that just these few IPOs alone, adjusted for inflation, could exceed the total value of all IPOs issued throughout the entire prior history of the stock market combined. Think about that for a minute.

That would represent the largest wave of equity supply ever introduced into financial markets.

Historically, this type of massive issuance tends to happen late in cycles when optimism, liquidity, and speculative appetite are running extremely high. It doesn’t automatically mean the market crashes tomorrow, but this is the kind of environment often seen near major market tops.

If this gambler "risk on' environment ever turns to "risk off" it will not be pretty. They can have it, I'll continue to deploy capital on low valuation asymmetric sectors. By the way, did you know that the gold and oil sector beat the semi conductor sector over the last few years? We will see.

HARDER TO FIND A JOB IF YOUR YOUNG. Hiring rates for age 55 and older are up 85% year-over-year, while hiring rates for age 29 and under are down 29%, according to Michael Green.

It appears many companies are prioritizing experienced, already-trained, highly productive workers while slowing down hiring and training of younger employees.

One question worth asking: are entry-level workers quietly being replaced by AI, automation, and robotics before they ever get the opportunity to gain experience?

If true, this could become a major long-term economic and social shift. Companies reduce training costs and increase efficiency, but younger generations may find it much harder to enter the workforce and build careers.

At the same time, experienced workers who understand operations, relationships, and problem solving may actually become more valuable in an AI-driven world.

We will see.

Adam Rozencwajg’s view on the Oil Market. Oil inventories will run out in July.

Wait Patiently While The Trap Sets Itself Join the discussion at Peak Prosperity: https://peak.fan/yckkut7pContact Peak Financial Investing at https://peak.fan/yjn6uhprTime to talk to a calm, measure...

ENERGY CRISIS UPDATE-Higher prices incoming.

I don’t say this lightly, but from an investment probability standpoint, I have to operate as if this energy crisis gets worse before it gets better.

Right now, the buffers that typically stabilize the system are already being drawn down.

That doesn’t guarantee the worst-case outcome, but it shifts the odds enough that ignoring it would be a mistake.

I do pray this conflict de-escalates. A resolution would allow leadership here at home to refocus on the work that still needs to be done domestically. Lots!

Until then, I believe from an energy standpoint it’s wise to prepare for the worst and hope for the best. We do have more inventory to work off but by the end of this year, $150-200 oil would not surprise me. Short term I could see $120/barrel. When this ends $75-85 for an extended time as the new lower base. UAE leaving OPEC may put pressure on the price in the long-term.

I’m personally preparing for much higher oil etc. prices for the West and everything that comes with that. In addition, lots of demand destruction in the east/poor countries.

Price will literally need to destroy demand when inventories are drawn down and I don’t know exactly how high oil will have to go for that to happen. 

We will see. 🙏🏻

Energy Reality vs Market Perception

We are down roughly 12–13 million barrels per day globally. That’s not a small disruption—that’s a structural deficit. The world has already burned through an estimated 600 million barrels, and according to Goldman Sachs, the real damage is already locked in due to voyage times alone.

In simple terms, the oil that should be arriving… isn’t.

Global inventories are now on track to fall well below historic lows. I would agree with that assessment. What stands out to me is the growing disconnect between paper oil (futures pricing) and physical barrels. The market is still pricing convenience—while the real world is starting to price scarcity.

Most of the buffers are gone. “Pre-war, on-the-water” inventories have largely been used up. We should run out in July

So why is the stock market sitting at all-time highs while energy shortages are quietly building?

Because markets don’t react to risk—they react to reality. And reality, in energy markets, shows up physically.

We are starting to see early signs:

Asia is beginning to feel supply strain
Europe likely follows next
Jet fuel shortages are being reported at some airports
Airlines like KLM Royal Dutch Airlines and Ryanair are already seeing disruptions and cancellations
Cushing, Oklahoma—a key delivery point—is showing tightening in refined products like gasoline and jet fuel

Look at places like Australia—high diesel consumption, limited refining capacity, and heavy reliance on imports from Asia. That’s where stress tends to surface first.

This is how shortages begin—not all at once, but in pockets.

The challenge is timing the inflection point. That moment when the market shifts from “adequately supplied” to “scrambling for barrels.”

In my opinion, we are getting close.

Not there yet—but close.

We will see.

Title: Paper Oil vs Physical Oil — Something Isn’t Adding Up

Right now, there’s a major disconnect in the oil market.

The paper futures price may say oil is around $95… but in reality, it can cost closer to $130 to actually secure a physical barrel and deliver it to a refinery. That’s roughly a $35 spread—and that’s not normal.

What does that tell us?

It suggests the paper market may not be reflecting true supply conditions. Someone appears to be heavily short in the futures market, and the real question is whether they can actually deliver the physical oil when contracts come due.

Some believe this could even involve a government-backed effort to suppress prices. Maybe. Maybe not. But if those short positions can’t be covered with real barrels, the market will eventually force the issue.

And when it does, it won’t be subtle.

A forced buying event could send oil prices sharply higher in a very short period of time.

We’re already seeing signs of stress in Asia. If this conflict drags on without resolution, the effects could begin hitting closer to home by the end of April.

Yes, the U.S. is a net exporter—but that doesn’t tell the whole story. Our refining system depends heavily on imported heavy sour crude—over 2 million barrels per day.

According to JPMorgan Chase, the last tanker of pre-COVID oil supply is expected to arrive in the U.S. around April 20.

If that’s accurate, the timing matters.

Because once those legacy supplies are gone, the gap between paper and physical markets may not be able to hold.

In my opinion, we may be approaching a moment where price discovery becomes very real… very fast.

We will see.

OIL SECTOR UPDATE

Why the Market May Still Be Underestimating This Energy Crisis Eric Nuttall, April 9, 2026 – In this week’s edition, Eric Nuttall, Senior Portfolio Manager of Ninepoint Energy Strategies, breaks down why the current glob...