Aspen Wealth Advisors LLP

Turmeric(Haldi ) looks good for investment for one year time horizon.
Fresh arrivals and demand, indicates bottoming out prices at current levels.

Global Economic Cycle

Beware of all fraudulent SMS's with Short names like"CAPITALM". " SHRKHN" "LKPCAP",mostly recommending all fraudulent stocks, just ignore them

RBI policy today on 2.30 pm
RBI policy effect------
if rate cut - no change then correction till 8400
if rate cut- 0.25% then flat 8750-8850
if rate cut- 0.5% then nifty 8940--9000++
be ready for volatility........🛫🛬🛫🛬🛫🛬

Key Point of Budget
1) Big Budget push! MGNREGA allocation at Rs 48,000 crore, highest ever, says FM.
2) Target for agriculture credit fixed at Rs 10 lakh crore
3) PM scheme for housing has been raised from Rs 15,000 crore to Rs 23,000 crore in current year, Jaitley says
4) Govt will continue to work closely with farmers to improve life and environment: Arun Jaitley
5) We have to complete 1,00,00,000 houses by 2019 for the houseless and those living in kaccha houses" 11:44 AM (IST), Feb 01
6) FM pushes for safe train rides in Budget: Rs 1 lakh cr safety corpus for Railways
7) Rs 9,000 crore higher allocation for payment of sugarcane arrears: Jaitley 11:48 AM (IST), Feb 01
8) Committed to doubling the farmers' income in 5 years:
9) FM pushes for safe train rides in Budget: Rs 1 lakh cr safety corpus for Railways.
10) Aadhar based smart card for senior citizens:
11) Scheme for senior citizens to give them assured income and health benefits.
12) Two new AIIMS to be set up in Gujarat and Jharkhand
13) Service charges on tickets booked through IRCTC stands withdrawn says FM..
14) A new metro rail policy will be announced, this will open up new jobs for our youth:
15) By 2019, all coaches of Indian Railways will be fitted with bio-toilets.
16) Total rail capital expenditure for fiscal year 2018 pegged at 1.31 trillion rupees:
17) We will continue reform agendas and abolish FIPB (Foreign Investment Promotion Board):
18) Rs 500 crore allocated to set up Mahila Shakti Kendras; Allocation raised from Rs 1.56 lakh crore to Rs 1.84 lakh crore for women and child welfare.
19) Total capital and developmental expenditure Rs1.31 lakh crore for Railways in 2017-18 including Rs 55,000 crore to be provided by govt.
20) Rs. 3.96 Cr for Infra structure....Announces new scheme for Trade Infrastructure exports...!
21) Govt. plans to merge Tribunals, wherever necessary....Master stroke by our Taxmann FM
22) Jena - AKT: .New metro rail policy to be unveiled:
23) Aadhaar Pay to be launched soon.
24) India is at the cusp of a massive digital revolution".
25) 3.5 crore youth will be trained under Sankalp program launched by the government.
26) 3.5 crore youth will be trained under Sankalp program launched by the government:
27) A new law likely to confiscate assets of the big-time economic offenders fleeing country.
28) Head post offices to be used as the front office for passport sevices.
29) Total allocation for infrastructure in Budget stands at a record level Rs 3,96,135 crore in 2017-18: Arun Jaitley
30) Jena - AKT: Non ITR filers have no escape route cautions FM...!
31) cars sold and foreign travel being compared with return filed by individuals
32) By end of 2017-18, high speed broadband connectivity on optic fibres will be available in more than 1,50,000 gram panchayats:
33) Fiscal deficit pegged at 3.2 per cent of GDP in 2017-18 and 3 per cent in the following year.
34) Draft Bill to curb illegal deposit scheme ready:
35) Total ITR showing income above 5lacs is only 76 lacs out of which 56 lacs are salaried employees....FM
36) When too many people evade taxes, burden falls on those who are honest" 12:27 PM (IST), Feb 01
37) From the 3.5 crore individuals who filed tax returns, 99 lakh showed income below income tax slab, while only 24 lakh show income above Rs 10 lakhs, Jaitley says in Parliament
38) 34 percent increase in advance tax for 3 qtrs
39) holding period for long term reduced to 2 years in case of property
40) Corporate Tax Rate reduced to 25% for Cos turnover upto Rs 50 Cr
41) Mat credit carry forward period increased to 15 from 10
42) Custom duty on LPG reduced to 2.5%
43) Cash donation recd by charitable trusts reduced to Rs 2000/- from Rs. 10000/-
44) Threshold limit under Section 40A(3) for payment of expenses in cash is reduced to Rs. 10,000:
45) Finance Bill proposes ban on cash transactions above 3 lakhs
46) Presumptive income under Section 44AD for digital receipts is reduced to 6%:
47) Capital gains tax to be exempted for the land acquired for creation of Telangana: Arun Jaitley
48) Domestic TP norms is simplified..great move to reduce TP litigations
49) Threshold limit for audit of entities opting for presumptive taxation under Section 44AD is increased to 2 crores.
50) Personal IT- exemption limit remains same
51) But 2.5 to 5 lacs reduced to 5% instead of present 10 % all other category remains the same
52) First time return filers wont be subject to scrutiny for 1st year..T&C apply
53) One page ITR form to be introduced for taxpayers with taxable income of up to 5 lakhs except business income
54) Govt. proposes levy of surcharge of 10% for income between Rs. 15 lakhs and Rs. 1 crores

PREVIEW THIRD QUARTER RESULTS

Among sectors, Capital Goods, IT and commodities (Metals / Oil & Gas) are expected to predominantly propel this quarter. On the other hand, Auto, Cement and Paints are expected to report de-growth on a YoY basis. Demonetisation is one of the reasons for de-growth in consumption related sectors.

Margins are expected to be largely unchanged

Margins in Auto, FMCG and Paints are expected to be lower because of reduced demand and increase in raw material prices. On the other hand, commodities should report higher profitability on the back of higher realisations.
Focus areas
Focus must be on the consumption - oriented companies, which are likely to have been impacted by the demonetization issues. We will watch out for comments on how long will demand revival take and whether there is any potential benefit for the organized sector v/s unorganized players.

Also on the order bookings of capital goods and construction companies,focus will be higher on companies which stand to benefit from the Government spending (eg. Road companies, defence, railways, etc). Government spending is up significantly on a YoY basis and that should have positive impact on the relevant sectors / companies. While we have started seeing some movement in private sector capex, it is still largely subdued. This is expected to continue impacting several of the capital goods companies in the near future also. Management commentary on momentum of decision-making and order placements will be important for us.

We will also closely track early indications from IT companies, about any impact from Brexit of client spending / decision-making as also any likely impact of potential visa / immigration restrictions in US.

Conclusion
Markets have under-performed most EMs and DMs in 3QFY17. Foreign flows have also been weak in November - December. Along with the results, global events and the progress on the GST Bill (finalization of rates, implementation of infrastructure, etc) will engage market's attention. With valuations at around the long-term average, one needs to be extra vigilant while selecting companies for investments. We opine that, if the markets have to move up, it will need to have more confidence in the medium-to-long term growth rates of Corporate India.

Understanding Markets

As we enter 2017 perhaps it makes sense to take a step back to gain better perspective on the longer term, primary trend of the stock market. The primary trend is simply the main direction in which the market is moving over the longer term (generally up to 2 years)—sounds like quite an elementary thing to discern. The reason we all like to remind ourselves of it is because it’s incredibly easy to get lost in short term market gyrations. Such loss of perspective often leads to costly, ill-timed mistakes and over-trading. However, the primary trend is not always particularly easy to decipher. This is why it’s important to employ an objective, rules-based methodology in order to properly identify the primary trend. When investors are near certain of the primary trend, they are able to possess the conviction necessary to buy when others are selling (during bull trends) and to sell when others are eagerly buying (during bear trends).

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