23/10/2026
It's not a character flaw. It's human nature. You wouldn't have started the business if you weren't wired to see the upside.
But here's what I regularly see.
The forecast assumes the big retailer says yes.
It assumes the launch lands on time.
It assumes nobody leaves, nobody gets sick, nobody pays late.
It assumes material costs hold.
It assumes equipment doesn't break down in August.
Then one of those things happens. Usually two. And the cash that looked comfortable in March is gone by June.
The fix isn't to stop being optimistic. The fix is to build a second forecast next to the first one.
Take your numbers and ask four questions:
1) What if my biggest customer pays 30 days later than promised?
2) What if my top-line comes in 20% under plan?
3) What if my main input cost rises 15%?
4) What if I lose my best employee next month?
Run the model. Look at the bank balance in week 13.
If the answer is "we survive" - carry on.
If the answer is "we don't" - you've just found the three decisions you need to make this quarter. An overdraft facility you don't yet need. A second supplier. A deposit policy. A key-person insurance quote.
The optimistic forecast tells you where you're going.
The stress test tells you whether you'll arrive.
You need both on the desk.