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The national budget of FY2024-25 is set to be announced at a time when Bangladesh's economy is going through a difficult phase, facing high inflation and declining foreign exchange reserves. These challenges have partially been attributed to the falling value of the taka against the US dollar and a declining trend in remittance earnings and modest export inflows.

There are certain long-standing issues that need to be addressed also:
• Sluggish private investment,
• Increased debt burden,
• Dismal revenue mobilization,
• Inefficient implementation of development projects,
• Lack of effective governance in the financial sector, etc.

Resource allocation of the budget must also address the fundamental issues of
• Reducing poverty particularly in the face of high inflation,
• Managing rising inequality,
• Sustaining growth, and
• Generating employment.

The top priority must be bringing the inflation rate down to a tolerable level, instead of focusing on accelerating growth or ambitious and costly large-scale investment programmes.

এবারো আয়করের করমুক্ত সিমা ৩৫০,০০০ টাকা করার প্রস্তাবনা মনে হচ্ছে ঠিক হয়নি। আমরা যদি একজন চাকরিজীবির আয়কর হিসাব করি তাহলে সর্বোচ্চ ৪৫০,০০০ টাকা বাদ দেয়ার পর প্রথম ধাপে আরো ৩৫০,০০০ টাকা আয়ের উপর কর দিতে হয় না, যাহাতে সব মিলিয়ে করমুক্ত আয় থাকে ৮০০,০০০ টাকা। বাংলাদেশ ব্যাংক এর ওয়েব সাইট দেখলে দেখা যাবে ৯% এর উপরে মুল্যস্পিতি হয়েছে গত এক বছরে, বাস্তবে হয়তো এর চাইতে অনেক বেশি। ধরে নিলাম ১০% মুল্যস্পিতি হয়েছে, এতে করে গতবার যদি ৮০০,০০০ লাখ টাকা আয়ের উপর কর মওকুফ থাকে, তাহলে ইনফ্ল্যাশন এডযাষ্ট করার পর এবার ৮৮০,০০০ টাকা মওকুফ করলে গত বারের সমান সুবিধা পাওয়া যাবে। সুতরাং ৪৫০,০০০ টাকা বাদ দেয়ার পর সাধারন কর দাতার প্রথম ধাপে করমুক্ত সীমা ৪৩০,০০০ টাকা হয় যেখানে আবারো ৩৫০,০০০ টাকা রাখা হয়েছে যাহা মোটেও যাষ্টিফাইড হয় নি।

বিদ্রঃ দেশের জনগনের টাকা যেহেতু বেনেজির সাপ নিয়ে তার গুদামে জমা করছে আর মাননীয় সরকার যেহেতু ধরেই ফেলছে, ঐ টাকা রাজস্ব খাতে জমা করে হলেও বাংলাদেশের আপামর সাধারন জনগনের কর মুক্ত সীমার প্রথম ধাপ ৪৫০,০০০ টাকা হওয়া উচিত। শেষের দিকে নতুন ধাপ যোগ করে প্রয়োজনে ৫০% কর আরোপ করা হউক, সেগুলোতে হয়তো কোন লুকিয়ে থাকা বেনেজিরের কাছ থেকে কিছু টাকা বের হবে।

Economic Crisis and Way forward:

Overcoming an economic reserve crisis—a situation where a country faces a significant depletion of its foreign exchange reserves—requires a multifaceted approach that involves immediate stabilization measures and long-term structural reforms. Here’s a comprehensive technique to address such a crisis:

A. Immediate Stabilization Measures

a. Exchange Rate Management:

i. Flexible Exchange Rate: Allow the exchange rate to adjust to market conditions to prevent reserve depletion. This might involve a controlled devaluation to align with economic fundamentals.

ii. Capital Controls: Temporarily implement capital controls to prevent capital flight and stabilize the currency.

b. Monetary Policy Adjustments:

i. Interest Rate Hikes: Increase interest rates to curb inflation and attract foreign investment, thereby stabilizing the currency.

ii. Liquidity Management: Tighten liquidity to support the currency and prevent further outflow of reserves.

c. Fiscal Policy Adjustments:

i. Austerity Measures: Implement spending cuts and tax increases to reduce fiscal deficits and restore confidence in the economy.

ii. Targeted Subsidies: Provide targeted support to vulnerable sectors while avoiding widespread subsidies that strain the budget.

d. International Assistance:

i. IMF Assistance: Seek assistance from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to obtain emergency funding and technical support.

ii. Bilateral and Multilateral Loans: Secure loans from other countries, international organizations, or development banks to bolster reserves.

e. Debt Management:

i. Restructuring: Negotiate with creditors to restructure debt to extend maturities and reduce immediate repayment pressures.

ii. Debt Moratorium: Seek temporary relief or moratoriums on debt payments to preserve reserves.

B. Long-term Structural Reforms

a. Export Promotion and Diversification:

i. Enhance Competitiveness: Invest in sectors where the country has a comparative advantage to boost exports.

ii. Diversify Exports: Diversify the export base to reduce dependence on a few commodities or markets.

b. Import Substitution:

i. Domestic Production: Promote domestic production of goods to reduce reliance on imports, especially for essential items.

ii. Value Addition: Encourage industries that add value to raw materials domestically before exporting.

c. Foreign Investment Attraction:

i. Favorable Policies: Create a favorable business environment to attract foreign direct investment (FDI), such as tax incentives and ease of doing business reforms.

ii. Public-Private Partnerships: Engage in public-private partnerships to attract investment in infrastructure and other critical sectors.

d. Financial Sector Reforms:

i. Strengthen Banking Sector: Ensure the stability and health of the banking sector through proper regulation and oversight.

ii. Develop Capital Markets: Enhance capital markets to provide alternative financing sources for businesses.

e. Governance and Institutional Reforms:

i. Anti-Corruption Measures: Strengthen anti-corruption measures to improve governance and investor confidence.

ii. Regulatory Framework: Improve the regulatory framework to ensure transparency and efficiency in economic activities.

f. Social and Economic Inclusion:

i. Education and Skills: Invest in education and skill development to create a more productive workforce.

ii. Inclusive Growth: Ensure that economic growth is inclusive and benefits all sections of society to maintain social stability.

g. Energy and Resource Management:

i. Energy Efficiency: Promote energy efficiency and the use of renewable energy sources to reduce import bills.

ii. Resource Management: Efficiently manage natural resources to ensure sustainable economic benefits.

By implementing these measures, a country can stabilize its economic situation in the short term while laying the foundation for long-term resilience and sustainable growth.

Thanks